Right, the historical "% used" extrapolation gives you this, assuming linear wear and usage. What I meant however is the result of the original formula from the article you referred to, FWIW ...where 240TB is the estimated annual TBW.Uh the formula I used was based on 2%, 60TB, 3mo. Last time I checked 50 * 2% is 100% and 3 mo. x 50 is 150 months with is indeed 12.5 years.
Also where is this 240'000 GB number coming from? That is 240 TB/year which if we go by the 2,400 TBW warranted for a 2 TB Samsung.860 PRO should last 10 years and that is warranted for 5 years.
Also, if we use your Samsung TBW info as a reference, then for 1Tb SSD it gives 2.5-5 years endurance depending on the model (600-1200 TBW) ... not exactly reassuring. Long story short - we don't know the real SSD longevity, calculations above give rather wide range.
And it's not particularly what is interesting here - SSD chips Apple use in M1s aren't much different from what industry is using. The topic is the obvious write abuse by MacOS Big Sur, primarily via swapping, and how to solve it.