The new Mac mini is almost certainly coming

[Peter_M]

If they want to stay in the Mac market, they honestly don't have a choice unless they expect their customers to try and keep decade-plus old hardware and operating systems operating to run their applications and plug-ins - and doing so with zero support from Apple.




Sure they could. And they could have released a 2022 iMac 5K with 12th Generation Alder Lake for folks like myself who use our Intel iMacs as Windows workstations in our day jobs via Boot Camp. And they could have released a 2022 Mac Pro with Intel W-3300 series Xeons for all the people who have specialized PCIe cards for their workflows. And they could have kept a Skylake-powered Intel MacBook Pro (13" or 15") in the lineup when they announced the M1 Pro and M1 Max for folks running Intel-only specialized applications on the go.

But Apple is "done" with Intel and they almost certainly don't see any real benefit - especially long-term - to dedicating engineering resources (monetary and human) to keep updating those models. And what real incentive does Intel have to help Apple? Sure, they're still a customer, but a customer who went from buying tens of millions of CPUs and chipsets a year to one who might only be buying tens of thousands as the vast majority of Apple's Mac customer base continues to transition to Apple Silicon machines.

IMO, the only reason Apple is keeping the 2018 Mac mini around is because as the "catch-all Mac", its user base is so wide - people use it for everything and even if each niche is small, taken together, they still represent a large enough pool of buyers to warrant Apple keeping it around "as a product in our lineup". So it may very well stick around for a time as the last Intel Mac just to address the (continually) dwindling market of folks who must have a Mac, but also must have it on Intel x86 architecture. But as that market continues to shrink, Apple is going to maximize their return by keeping it on the current hardware and only when Intel stops making the CPUs - as happened with the 2017 iMac Pro - will it finally be sent "upstate to a farm".

Logic Pro X still has various issues in the most recent version, ie. 10.7 (which has been quite buggy for both Intel and M1/M2 - try browsing around in various forums for professional Logic users). Apple themselves aren't able to make a stable and issue-free version of Logic for Apple silicone so far, but somehow a bunch of small companies with tight margins should have had everything fingured out by now? Come on...

There is no excuse for such a big company like Apple, to sell the same product for 5 years without an update, when new CPUs are released every year. I appreciate your effort to convey Apple's side in this, but this is just plain penny-pinching laziness on Apple's part at the detriment of the costumer. Obviously I don't realistically expect a new Intel Mac Mini in 2022, but Apple should have released one in 2020/21, not the quasi-update we got (especially considering the 2018 Mac Mini's big weakness, its iGPU).

 

[CWallace]

So considering how many things Apple is said to be releasing this month - plus they owe us at least the announcement of the Mac Pro - I believe we will have an October Event, but like last year, it will be video-only. Gurman's opinion was just that - an opinion - so I think he is incorrect in believing Apple is going to spend the entire month sending out a succession of Press Releases.

So there could yet be a chance for a more powerful Mac mini alongside the updated MacBook Pro line (not thinking we will see an update to the Studio).

 

[gusping]

So considering how many things Apple is said to be releasing this month - plus they owe us at least the announcement of the Mac Pro - I believe we will have an October Event, but like last year, it will be video-only. Gurman's opinion was just that - an opinion - so I think he is incorrect in believing Apple is going to spend the entire month sending out a succession of Press Releases.

So there could yet be a chance for a more powerful Mac mini alongside the updated MacBook Pro line (not thinking we will see an update to the Studio).

I am torn on this. I don't think they can't make an event out of simple chip upgrades to the 14/16in MBPs and Mac mini, even if they cover the Mac Pro. But maybe there are a few little upgrades to the MBPs (similar to the mic/speaker upgrades in the past) they can spend time on. Who knows. Looking forward to it either way.

 

[rumz]

So considering how many things Apple is said to be releasing this month - plus they owe us at least the announcement of the Mac Pro - I believe we will have an October Event, but like last year, it will be video-only. Gurman's opinion was just that - an opinion - so I think he is incorrect in believing Apple is going to spend the entire month sending out a succession of Press Releases.

So there could yet be a chance for a more powerful Mac mini alongside the updated MacBook Pro line (not thinking we will see an update to the Studio).

I guess I'm just not convinced at this point that we'll see the Mac Pro this month-- if we see it at all in 2022. Everyone seems to think Apple has to meet some 2 year deadline but I don't see what's at stake if they don't. I want to see it, but in terms of what they sell it's got to be the most niche Mac. So, if everything else is spec bumps... they could feasibly do some press releases.

 

[EugW]

I guess I'm just not convinced at this point that we'll see the Mac Pro this month-- if we see it at all in 2022. Everyone seems to think Apple has to meet some 2 year deadline but I don't see what's at stake if they don't. I want to see it, but in terms of what they sell it's got to be the most niche Mac. So, if everything else is spec bumps... they could feasibly do some press releases.

Mac Pro December 2022!

 

[CWallace]

I am torn on this. I don't think they can't make an event out of simple chip upgrades to the 14/16in MBPs and Mac mini, even if they cover the Mac Pro. But maybe there are a few little upgrades to the MBPs (similar to the mic/speaker upgrades in the past) they can spend time on. Who knows. Looking forward to it either way.

Since it is just a video event, it does not need to be any minimum time - "Unleashed" last year was just under an hour so if this one is only 40-45 minutes, no biggie since everyone is streaming it.

I can see Apple wanting to talk about M2 Pro and M2 Max even if the MacBook Pros will add nothing new in terms of their physical design. The iPad is also getting a new design and USB-C (and by extension, Apple Pencil 2 support), which I would think they would want to talk about even if the iPads Pro remain unchanged.

Apple can also formally announce the availability of iPadOS 16 and macOS Ventura and do a quick re-cap of their major features to help pad things out if they need to get over the 30 minute mark.

I guess I'm just not convinced at this point that we'll see the Mac Pro this month-- if we see it at all in 2022. Everyone seems to think Apple has to meet some 2 year deadline but I don't see what's at stake if they don't.

The Mac Pro is (effectively) the final piece of the Apple Silicon Mac Transition Puzzle and they have confirmed it is a product they are planning to offer (per the "Peek Performance" event in March 2022). Even if it uses the same 3nm process we all presume M3 will be on, in theory it will not be called an M Class SoC (like the "Mx Extreme") per Apple's comments about the M1 Ultra at "Peek Performance" so talking about it at the same event as the M2 family is (mostly) fleshed-out with the M2 Pro and M2 Max should not create instant "Osbourne Effect" on those new SoCs.

 

[gusping]

Since it is just a video event, it does not need to be any minimum time - "Unleashed" last year was just under an hour so if this one is only 40-45 minutes, no biggie since everyone is streaming it.

I can see Apple wanting to talk about M2 Pro and M2 Max even if the MacBook Pros will add nothing new in terms of their physical design. The iPad is also getting USB-C (and by extension, Apple Pencil 2 support), which they will likely want to talk about even if the iPads Pro remain unchanged.

Apple can also formally announce the availability of iPadOS 16 and macOS Ventura and do a quick re-cap of their major features to help pad things out if they need to get over the 30 minute mark.




The Mac Pro is (effectively) the final piece of the Apple Silicon Mac Transition Puzzle and they have confirmed it is a product they are planning to offer (per the "Peek Performance" event in March 2022). Even if it uses the same 3nm process we all presume M3 will be on, in theory it will not be called an M Class SoC (like the "Mx Extreme") per Apple's comments about the M1 Ultra at "Peek Performance" so talking about it at the same event as the M2 family is (mostly) fleshed-out with the M2 Pro and M2 Max should not create instant "Osbourne Effect" on those new SoCs.

Completely forgot about the iPads. Most likely due to the iPad Pros getting minor 'upgrades' (wireless charging on an iPad? lol). I'm 70/30 on there being an event. I just want it to be soon so I can make my mind up about getting an M2 mini, M2 Pro mini (if it exists) or a Mac Studio, depending on price.

 

[Boil]

M2 Mac mini would be fine for playing WoW...

M2 Pro Mac mini would be great for WoW and messing with Blender (double the CPU P-cores, GPU cores, and UMA bandwidth)...

 

[opeter]

I have a strange feeling, that the Mac Pro gets an upgrade and thats it.

What about the Mac mini with and the Mac Studio? Well, they will get an M2 treatment, but it can happen, that not this year. Anyway, only three weeks left in October (if I don't not counting the current week), so all we need is just to sit, relax and wait.

 

[theluggage]

So considering how many things Apple is said to be releasing this month - plus they owe us at least the announcement of the Mac Pro - I believe we will have an October Event, but like last year, it will be video-only.

Why do I think that in a few weeks time we'll be arguing over the difference between an "event" and a "press release with video" ...?

(I'd suggest that an "event" is announced in advance with teasers/mock invitations, a press release just turns up).

I am torn on this. I don't think they can't make an event out of simple chip upgrades to the 14/16in MBPs and Mac mini, even if they cover the Mac Pro.

Pretty sure that, in the past, there have been cases of "extra" press release announcements after an "event" for the main features.

In this case, though, I don't think there is anything that has to be announced this year. The MBA/13" MBP - probably Apple's biggest selling Macs - waited 18 months for an update. The only things "due" on that scale are the Mac Mini (overdue) and 24" iMac (about due) - those would be M1 to M2 bumps and we've already had the M2 launch.

...and this very thread is testimony to the fact that the Mac Mini often gets left behind in the update cycle. The last Mac Mini waited 2 years, before that it was about 4 years...

There's also the theory that M2 Pro/Max/Ultra will be skipped until 3nm is available (5nm Max/Ultra chips would be getting rather large...) so we won't see 14/16" MBPs until next year.

I guess I'm just not convinced at this point that we'll see the Mac Pro this month-- if we see it at all in 2022. Everyone seems to think Apple has to meet some 2 year deadline but I don't see what's at stake if they don't.

I think if it was going to be available this year it would have been previewed at WWDC so that developers could start their engines (and pre-empt leaks from any developers with prototypes). That's happened with the trashcan, the iMac Pro and the 2019 Mac Pro.

M2 Pro Mac mini would be great for WoW and messing with Blender (double the CPU P-cores, GPU cores, and UMA bandwidth)...

"M2 Pro Mac mini" would be a new entry-level Mac Studio, not a Mini (extra ports, higher power consumption, more cooling), and would be embarrassingly faster than the current M1 Max Studio at anything not GPU limited (esp. vs. the 24 GPU Core studio). I don't think we'd see that until the Studio range gets re-vamped - if ever.

...of course, we're assuming that there will be M2 Pro/Max/Ultra chips with similar relative specs and price points to the M1 series.

 

[opeter]

"M2 Pro Mac mini" would be a new entry-level Mac Studio, not a Mini (extra ports, higher power consumption, more cooling), and would be embarrassingly faster than the current M1 Max Studio at anything not GPU limited (esp. vs. the 24 GPU Core studio). I don't think we'd see that until the Studio range gets re-vamped - if ever.

...of course, we're assuming that there will be M2 Pro/Max/Ultra chips with similar relative specs and price points to the M1 series.

Correct.
Let's wait and see, if there will a M2 Pro Mac mini, or whatever it would be called, but I doubt, because it would be a strong competitor to the entry level M1 Max Studio.

 

[rumz]

Correct.
Let's wait and see, if there will a M2 Pro Mac mini, or whatever it would be called, but I doubt, because it would be a strong competitor to the entry level M1 Max Studio.

Just like the M1 Pro MacBook Pro is a strong competitor to the M1 Max MacBook Pro? I still don't get this logic Whether it's a "Mac mini" or a "Mac Studio", there's a price slot available for an M2 Pro something in the desktop range in between the base M2 Mac mini and the (currently M1 Max) base Mac Studio.

Are you suggesting that an M2 Pro would canibalize sales of an M1 Max Mac Studio? That the Mac Studio needs to be updated to M2 Max / Ultra for an M2 Pro Mac mini to not be too disruptive to the Mac Studio line?

 

[theluggage]

Just like the M1 Pro MacBook Pro is a strong competitor to the M1 Max MacBook Pro?

We were talking about M2 Pro vs. the existing M1 Max Studio.

The M1 Pro and Max MBPs both have the same type and number (8 performance, 2 efficiency) of CPU cores, and perform much the same on CPU-heavy tasks. The Max is "better" because it has more GPU cores and an extra media engine.

The regular M2 uses newer, slightly faster CPU cores - maybe 10-20% faster - but the M1 Pro/Max still trump that on multi-core optimised tasks by having twice as many performance cores.

M2 Pro will presumably have at least the same number of cores as the M1 Pro/Max and they will be individually faster - so the M1 Max would lose badly on multi-core CPU-heavy tasks. There have been rumours of the M2 Pro/Max having 12 CPU cores (presumably 10 performance), too The M2 GPU cores are faster, too, which would erode the M1 Max's GPU advantage - especially if (as with M1 vs M2) they squeeze a couple more in.

So, I doubt that we'll see a M2 Pro Mini/Studio until the Studio Max gets a M2 Max chip - I'm not holding my breath.

...on top of that, the MacBook Pro probably sells in much higher numbers than (higher-end) Minis and Studios, so Apple can afford a bit more competition between models. With the desktop there's more danger that a less popular model won't sell enough to be viable (...and Apple have quite lofty expectations for sales volume).

 

[rumz]

We were talking about M2 Pro vs. the existing M1 Max Studio.

There's the distinction I asked about in the second half of my post And maybe I missed it in opeters post since I've seen posts similar so many times now.

And it makes sense. It just seemed like several people had been arguing in general that having a desktop with an Mx Pro would compete too much with the Studio which, of itself, makes no sense to me. Now, if you're talking about M2 Pro vs M1 Max... that is a little more clear.

And in that light... I think I agree that they are unlikely to put an M2 Pro Mac mini out whilst the Studio is still on M1. Super interested to see what does or does not get announced this fall. There seems to be a lot of rumbling about MBP's getting updated; zero about the Mac Studio (in any timeframe, not just this fall).

 

[CWallace]

It just seemed like several people had been arguing in general that having a desktop with an Mx Pro would compete too much with the Studio which, of itself, makes no sense to me.

The issue is that the Mac Studio is a pretty decent value for money considering it comes with an M1 Max, 32GB of RAM (with 400GB/s bandwidth), 512GB of SSD, 4 TB4 ports, 2 USB4 ports and 2 USB-A ports, 10Gb Ethernet and high-end cooling all for "only" $1999.

The Mac mini with 16GB of RAM, 512GB of SSD, 2 TB4 ports and 10Gb Ethernet is $1199, which means Apple had $800 of "wiggle room" for a "Mac mini Pro" during the M1 days. A 32GB memory upgrade alone would eat half of that ($400) and at best, an M1 Pro upgrade would be $200 (for an 8c/14g binned SoC).

So now for "only" $200" more, you get 8 more GPU cores, double the memory bandwidth for your 32GB (400GB/s on the Max compared to 200GB/s for the Pro), twice as many TB4 ports plus 2 USB4 ports and much stronger cooling.

Unless one cannot physically fit the Mac Studio into your environment, why would anyone not buy the Studio for such a small premium considering how much more value you get for your money?


Now, even if we adjust the calculation to presume the "Mac mini Pro" gets a binned M2 Pro with, say, 10c/14g cores and M2 bandwidth increases from 200GB/s to, say, 250GB/s and Apple keeps the M2 Pro upgrade price at the same $200, the M1 Studio still likely pencils out as the better value overall unless your workload is purely CPU-intensive. And even then, considering the better cooling of the Studio, it might very well keep those 10 M1 Max cores operating at a higher clock rate than the 10 M2 Pro cores and adding in the better memory bandwidth, the Studio could still offer better CPU performance than the "mini Pro".

 

[Boil]

Configure a 14" MacBook Pro to match the specs of a M1 Max Mac Studio...

There is a $900 price difference...

Now configure the 14" MacBook Pro with a full-die M1 Pro SoC, 16GB RAM, & 512GB SSD; and subtract $900, leaving one with $1399...

Maybe bump it up $100 for the M2 Pro SoC, wasn't the M1 > M2 price diff on the MacBook Air $100...?

Plenty of room in the lineup for a M2 Pro Mac mini...

 

[rumz]

The issue is that the Mac Studio is a pretty decent value for money considering it comes with an M1 Max, 32GB of RAM (with 400GB/s bandwidth), 512GB of SSD, 4 TB4 ports, 2 USB4 ports and 2 USB-A ports, 10Gb Ethernet and high-end cooling all for "only" $1999.

The Mac mini with 16GB of RAM, 512GB of SSD, 2 TB4 ports and 10Gb Ethernet is $1199, which means Apple had $800 of "wiggle room" for a "Mac mini Pro" during the M1 days. A 32GB memory upgrade alone would eat half of that ($400) and at best, an M1 Pro upgrade would be $200 (for an 8c/14g binned SoC).

So now for "only" $200" more, you get 8 more GPU cores, double the memory bandwidth for your 32GB (400GB/s on the Max compared to 200GB/s for the Pro), twice as many TB4 ports plus 2 USB4 ports and much stronger cooling.

Unless one cannot physically fit the Mac Studio into your environment, why would anyone not buy the Studio for such a small premium considering how much more value you get for your money?


Now, even if we adjust the calculation to presume the "Mac mini Pro" gets a binned M2 Pro with, say, 10c/14g cores and M2 bandwidth increases from 200GB/s to, say, 250GB/s and Apple keeps the M2 Pro upgrade price at the same $200, the M1 Studio still likely pencils out as the better value overall unless your workload is purely CPU-intensive. And even then, considering the better cooling of the Studio, it might very well keep those 10 M1 Max cores operating at a higher clock rate than the 10 M2 Pro cores and adding in the better memory bandwidth, the Studio could still offer better CPU performance than the "mini Pro".

I totally get the argument. The Studio is particularly great value as a Mac, in my opinion (though I do remember the days when Mac Pros started around $2k, they weren't as well spec'd with memory and such). There are some for whom $200-$300 might be the difference between getting something powerful *enough* but still affordable, and something more than powerful enough but unaffordable for them. Question is whether that group justifies the existence of an M2 Pro.

Here's a flip-side consideration: What if the Mac mini is *almost* perfect but I want to be able to drive 2 5k displays instead of only one. $200 to go from M2 to M2 Pro, let's say-- sold. Still $600 less than a Mac Studio. (Although... I can see that argument sounding silly if you're then going to spend more than twice that on a couple Studio Displays, hah.)

We'll see! The Mac Studio feels a bit like the "X Mac" that I had given up on Apple ever making. Beefier than the mini, but not as expensive or large as the Mac Pro usually is. It's likely my next Mac, I'm just in that in-between phase where I'm waiting to see how the M2 line rolls out because I don't have a pressing need.

 

[gusping]

It's likely my next Mac, I'm just in that in-between phase where I'm waiting to see how the M2 line rolls out because I don't have a pressing need.

I'm in a similar situation, although I do really want to ditch this i7 Intel s**tbox for an AS Mac pretty soon, lol. I just want an Intel replacement regarding the number of monitors supported and the array of ports. M2 would be doable at a push and the Mac Studio is overkill. However, if only the M2 is announced in Oct/Nov, I will probably just go for the Studio given the M2 has minimal single core performance improvements.

 

[CWallace]

Plenty of room in the lineup for a M2 Pro Mac mini...

If your workload solely scales with multi-core CPU performance (so memory capacity and bandwidth have no effect, nor does GPU performance) and you need no more than two TB4 ports, then yes, an M1 Pro or M2 Pro Mac mini makes sense because it would be ~$500 cheaper than a Mac Studio.

But how niche is that market?

 

[Boil]

If your workload solely scales with multi-core CPU performance (so memory capacity and bandwidth have no effect, nor does GPU performance) and you need no more than two TB4 ports, then yes, an M1 Pro or M2 Pro Mac mini makes sense because it would be ~$500 cheaper than a Mac Studio.

But how niche is that market?

Why would it be limited to two TB4 ports, when the M1 Pro MacBook Pro has three TB4 ports...?

I highly doubt we will see a M1 Pro Mac mini, but I do not think a M2 Pro Mac mini is unreasonable...

The niche market is that spot between the Mn & the Mn Max, the same spot filled by the M1 Pro SoC in the MacBook Pro in the laptop lineup; is the Mn Pro MacBook Pro a niche market as well...?

 

[opeter]

M2 would be doable at a push and the Mac Studio is overkill. However, if only the M2 is announced in Oct/Nov, I will probably just go for the Studio given the M2 has minimal single core performance improvements.

May I ask, why do you think, that the Mac Studio won't be upgraded to the M2 Max/Ultra at the same time, when the Mac mini gets the M2?

 

[gusping]

May I ask, why do you think, that the Mac Studio won't be upgraded to the M2 Max/Ultra at the same time, when the Mac mini gets the M2?

It may well be upgraded, but not until next year, and given the fall in the £ vs the $, it will almost certainly increase in price by £150-200. I’d probably just buy the M1 Max version Rather than wait and pay more.

 

[Cheruman]

That’s something I’m trying to weigh up too. My 2018 Intel Mini is due an upgrade but realistically the Studio is way overpowered for my needs, however with the £ in the gutter my guess is Apple will hike prices across the lineup regardless of wether they upgrade the Studio to M2.

My guess is they stick an M2 in the Mini and call it a day, but not before adding a couple of hundred quid to the price. I’m tempted to pull the trigger on a base-spec Studio but also want to wait to see what Apple announce.

 

[gusping]

That’s something I’m trying to weigh up too. My 2018 Intel Mini is due an upgrade but realistically the Studio is way overpowered for my needs, however with the £ in the gutter my guess is Apple will hike prices across the lineup regardless of wether they upgrade the Studio to M2.

My guess is they stick an M2 in the Mini and call it a day, but not before adding a couple of hundred quid to the price. I’m tempted to pull the trigger on a base-spec Studio but also want to wait to see what Apple announce.

If ‘only’ an M2 mini is released and the Studio gets a price bump, I will most likely try and nab one from a reseller or other tech shop before they put their prices up. I doubt everywhere will do it on the same day.

 

[theluggage]

May I ask, why do you think, that the Mac Studio won't be upgraded to the M2 Max/Ultra at the same time, when the Mac mini gets the M2?

The M2 is already launched (in the Air and 13" MBP) - it hasn't yet been 100% confirmed that there will even be a M2 Pro/Max/Ultra.

The Mac Mini is coming up on 2 years old. The Studio range is only about 6 months old.

Apple's priority for the M2 Pro/Max - if they exist - is the flagship 14/16" MacBook Pro which are likely to get an exclusive for a while - and they are only just coming up on 1 year old, whereas they could easily be on an 18 month cycle.

On past performance, the timeline was something like:

M1: November 2020 (Air, MBP13, Mini)
M1 Pro/Max: October 2021 (14/16" MBP)
M1 Ultra: March 2022 (Mac Studio)

...which doesn't prove anything about the future but does hint not to expect the M2 Max/Ultra hot on the heels of the regular M2.

Bear in mind that - with the M1 - Apple made two distinct chip designs - the regular M1, followed almost a year later by the M1 Max - which, aside from more CPU and GPU cores, had an upgraded memory bus and new hardware video codecs. The M1 Pro is essentially a M1 Max with a bit chopped off, the M1 Ultra is two M1 Max's stitched together. So it's not like the existence of the M2 means that the M2 Max is in the bag. It's even possible that the M2 Pro/Max/Ultra (or whatever the new range will be called) are waiting for the 3nm process to be available next year (which should being a speed and power consumption as well as space to cram in more features).

If/When Apple do roll out M? Max/Ultra Studios they could indeed launch a M? Pro desktop option (whether it is called "Mini" or "Studio") - however they could have launched a M1 Pro Studio back in March (guessing the pricing based on MacBook Pro upgrade prices puts it smack in the range of the old higher-end i5/i7 Mini) but didn't.