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On the contrary, the Wii U at that point had a greater install base than the PS4 as Knack was a launch title. Yet as Mario 3D World struggled to even enter the top 20 games charts sales wise, Knack outsold it. Which means those Nintendo faithful who still claim that all Nintendo really need is Nintendo titles, didn't proportionately buy one of the best games on wii u compared to the amount of PS4 users picking up Knack with their launch PS4's. Neither arguably then did it sell as many wii u's compared to Knack sold people on PS4 which is quite depressing thinking.

I was referring to total lifetime attachment, not the movement rate of consoles at launch.

Launching the Switch without Zelda would be the biggest mistake, and it would be wiser to delay the launch of the Switch until it at least had decent handful / plethora of triple A games. Launching against two consoles with a now a mass library each and full third party developer support the Switch without games is a poor option.

I couldn't agree more. The most recent rumour seems to point to Skyrim SE (which will have been released for six months on competitors, thus *snore*) and Mario Switch being the unbundled launch titles, with the enhanced port of Splatoon being the bundled game for the more expensive bundle. While it had strong sales among the Wii U install base, I just don't see it as a title that will move systems beyond those transitioning to the Switch.

I honestly expect the Switch to struggle beyond those eager early adopters. I don't think it will vastly appeal to casual users or a lot of mobile users at at launch price, given most have smartphones and these casual game experiences and now even Nintendo themselves are launching franchises on them. Without a doubt Pokemon Go since it's release this year has sold / installed more copies of Pokemon on smartphones than the total combined copies of its Pokemon games over last 20 years on Nintendo handhelds.

I agree with this as well. GO was not tied to particular hardware, and it's social coordination and competition aspect make it the perfect vehicle for massive freemium sales.

The 'niche' the Switch is appealing to, I fear will be far 'too' niche to drive genuine 3rd party support. I also don't expect the Switch to be very more powerful than the Wii U. I expect performance below XB1 and it struggles at 900p on most titles.

I would expect something near but less than the XBONE, which will put the limit for forward triple-A support, if it even materialises, to approximately twelve to eighteen months, at which point I expect most devs to cease backward support for PS4Pro and Scorpio titles. On top of all of the other issues, I don't feel that it bodes well for the platform.

Even if targeting the Switch to be a companion console to your XB1 or PS4 and also your Smartphone ... the wii u sales have proven folks tire of such prospect ....

The current state of the economy will not support broad multisystem adoption any longer, not when there are so few compelling titles that are truly exclusives, least of all handheld with rubbish battery life and a form factor that makes the descriptor 'portable' laughable.

I just can not get excited about it.

Neither can I.
 
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I was referring to total lifetime attachment, not the movement rate of consoles at launch.



I couldn't agree more. The most recent rumour seems to point to Skyrim SE (which will have been released for six months on competitors, thus *snore*) and Mario Switch being the unbundled launch titles, with the enhanced port of Splatoon being the bundled game for the more expensive bundle. While it had strong sales among the Wii U install base, I just don't see it as a title that will move systems beyond those transitioning to the Switch.



I agree with this as well. GO was not tied to particular hardware, and it's social coordination and competition aspect make it the perfect vehicle for massive freemium sales.



I would expect something near but less than the XBONE, which will put the limit for forward triple-A support, if it even materialises, to approximately twelve to eighteen months, at which point I expect most devs to cease backward support for PS4Pro and Scorpio titles. On top of all of the other issues, I don't feel that it bodes well for the platform.



The current state of the economy will not support broad multisystem adoption any longer, not when there are so few compelling titles that are truly exclusives, least of all handheld with rubbish battery life and a form factor that makes the descriptor 'portable' laughable.



Neither can I.
I can't say anything for Microsoft's plans with the Scorpio, but Sony is currently maintaining that developers can not create Pro only games. If it runs on Pro, it runs on the launch PS4. This may change next year once the Scorpio is out, but for now they have been saying that enhanced features are the only exclusives, not entire games. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this means developer support for the Switch lasts for a majority of the life of the console.
 
I can't say anything for Microsoft's plans with the Scorpio, but Sony is currently maintaining that developers can not create Pro only games. If it runs on Pro, it runs on the launch PS4. This may change next year once the Scorpio is out, but for now they have been saying that enhanced features are the only exclusives, not entire games. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this means developer support for the Switch lasts for a majority of the life of the console.

According to MS, XBox's will be backwards compatible from here on out.

PS4 and PS4 Pro, on the other hand, are really the same console gen. PS5 will probably not be bwc....

I would assume the PS5 will be revealed right before the Scorpio launch...
 
I can't say anything for Microsoft's plans with the Scorpio, but Sony is currently maintaining that developers can not create Pro only games. If it runs on Pro, it runs on the launch PS4. This may change next year once the Scorpio is out, but for now they have been saying that enhanced features are the only exclusives, not entire games. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this means developer support for the Switch lasts for a majority of the life of the console.

If the Scorpio allows Microsoft to continue the trend of displacing PlayStation sales for the mid-generation refresh, and I have seen no data of late to suggest that that's not the case, Sony will not be in a position to dictate those terms by that time. Microsoft is essentially copying Sony's playbook with the PS2 by releasing a device that will provide forward format compatibility for the device, i.e. UHD compatibility. Is UHD big right now? No, it's presently at the bleeding edge, but one has to remember that the same people that have the money and inclination to favour newer technically superior formats also have the money to adopt the system that will have the most future proofing, even if it is marginally more expensive than its competitor.

And to forestall any charges that I'm a shill for XBOX, I was a two system adopter in the eight gen: PS4 and Wii U. I chose PS4 because it offered the technically superior hardware, which in the context of normal hardware lifecycles usually means the greatest forward longevity and third-party support in maturity. With this mid-generational refresh, the Scorpio is taking aim directly at one of the factors that aided the PS4's success this generation, namely its technical prowess, and if the specs for Scorpio are to be believed, it will do so in a walk. Coupled with having onboard UHD support, something that the PS4Pro lacks, its value proposition increases dramatically, even more so should the rumoured 360 and OG compability pan out.

Why is all of this important? Sony, having sold PS4 at 2:1 vs XBONE, has the install base and clout to demand backwards compatibility for the time being. That said, with development budgets becoming increasingly inflated, at the same time that gamer tolerance for microtransactions and other revenue-generating mechanisms used to recoup costs is becoming increasingly short, the willingness of third-party devs to cater to console specific requirements is going to shift dramatically. If that were to be coupled with Microsoft eroding PS4 sales, which it has done for an unbroken streak of some months, and likely will continue to do with the release of the Scorpio, that clout will diminish. Another factor to take into account is that Microsoft is wisely, and in direct opposition to Sony, not leveraging Scorpio as being part of the fad of VR games. It will provide support at some point, but it is definitely not touting that as a primary feature nor incurring the cost of the associated hardware. Sony, foolishly when one looks at their general financial viability, is doing so, and choosing to do on a strictly niche product category, with inferior hardware to its competitors (such as the HTC Vive), and one which has deliberately avoided open standards and thus will divide the development community. So, Sony has essentially release a more expensive PS4 that will allow for quasi-4K gaming (but not really), no UHD support (and if you don't live in Singapore, HK or Korea, that matters in the context of streaming versus physical media), and will allow you to have an inferior VR experience for only an additional outlay of $600 (aside from the $400 headset, you need a PS camera and two Move controllers).

In short, there is little to me that would suggest that the results of this mid-generation cycle will be anything other than a poor counterpoint to Sony's meteoric performance beforehand, and these factors as I've outlined them leads me to the conclusion that the suggested backward compatibility will be enforceable only on first-party, and to and extent second-party, developments, and it will be quite short-lived. If I'm correct, and that period of compatibility lasts for only about twelve to eighteen months following the release of the Switch before primary third-party development outstrips the Switch's hardware profile. Could support, if it ever materialises, continue? Certainly, if there's an install base sufficient to warrant that development. But, as I've said in other posts, the continuation of the 3DS as a direct competitor in the portable space, with its price, battery life, physical robustness, and breadth of library, presents a real problem for Switch adoption, in that your transition install base from the previous home console is, at maximum, 13m and everything we know about the Switch suggests that the hardware will provide a lacklustre mobile experience versus its direct competitor (3DS).
 
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If the Scorpio allows Microsoft . . .
According to MS, XBox's will be backwards compatible from here on out. . . .
I can't say anything for Microsoft's plans with the Scorpio, . . .
This is a topic about the switch and I'll get back on topic.

https://mynintendonews.com/2016/11/18/new-nintendo-switch-report-coming-tomorrow/
Nintendo Switch report coming tomorrow. It looks to be all rumours. But we shall see if any new rumours will be shared.
 
This is a topic about the switch and I'll get back on topic.

https://mynintendonews.com/2016/11/18/new-nintendo-switch-report-coming-tomorrow/
Nintendo Switch report coming tomorrow. It looks to be all rumours. But we shall see if any new rumours will be shared.

And the topic remained about the Switch, insofar as we were addressing the question of third-party viability in relation to possible dev attitudes to its competitors in the near-term. That's a valid discussion to have in this thread.
 
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As someone who travels a lot this looks amazing. I sometimes go out of town for a month or two at a time. I have brought my ps4 with me on occasion, but it is seriously a pita to lug around, and some hotels prohibit you from plugging in your own devices/ have crap wifi etc.

I am on one of those trips ATM, and this would be a godsend to kill some time in the hotel. Right now I am stuck with basic cable, and a few iPad games.
 
And the topic remained about the Switch, insofar as we were addressing the question of third-party viability in relation to possible dev attitudes to its competitors in the near-term. That's a valid discussion to have in this thread.
That's talk about the competition. That's not related to the Switch at all. You didn't compare or contrast this at all to the Switch. Anyway moving right along.

This is the latest rumour list about what games will come to the Switch and when. On January 13 we shall know how true this rumour is.

qkHpB2S.jpg
 
That's talk about the competition. That's not related to the Switch at all. You didn't compare or contrast this at all to the Switch. Anyway moving right along.

This is the latest rumour list about what games will come to the Switch and when. On January 13 we shall know how true this rumour is.

qkHpB2S.jpg

Essentially if you have a Wii U with those games (and if you have a wii u you likely do given the lack of choice), you do not need a Switch.
 
That's talk about the competition. That's not related to the Switch at all. You didn't compare or contrast this at all to the Switch. Anyway moving right along.

This is the latest rumour list about what games will come to the Switch and when. On January 13 we shall know how true this rumour is.

qkHpB2S.jpg

Soooo, it's essentially:

Zelda Switch
Super Mario Switch
Pikmin 4 Switch
Pokeman Switch
Mario Maker Switch
(insert game from previous system here) Switch

Okay, I guess if all we're getting next year is Halo 6 and Destiny Whatever, and Mess Effect (whatever is next)

I guess it is like watching old TV programs on newer TV with enhanced visuals.

(I remember watching Star Trek programs over again but for the first time in color on a Color TV... :eek:)
 
Essentially if you have a Wii U with those games (and if you have a wii u you likely do given the lack of choice), you do not need a Switch.
Quite true but I'd buy a few of those games again if the updates in the Switch ports are at least semi-substantial.

Okay, I guess if all we're getting next year is Halo 6 and Destiny Whatever, and Mess Effect (whatever is next)
Not Switch games at all but I get your point. It's the EA cash cow issue. Just re-release the same game with it's number +1 and slightly improved story and visuals and call it a new game. EA are still in business so it's working for them.
 
That's talk about the competition. That's not related to the Switch at all. You didn't compare or contrast this at all to the Switch. Anyway moving right along.

I wrote at length as to how PlayStation's forward position is weak enough that multi-platform support for weaker hardware is not a given or even probable, which is extremely important to the Switch's viability during its most important period of commercial availability. That's perfectly germane to the discussion, so please stop trying to score points like this is a upper school debate.

This is the latest rumour list about what games will come to the Switch and when. On January 13 we shall know how true this rumour is.

Here's my problem with the launch lineup. First, let's remove the Wii U ports: Splatoon, Smash, MK8, XCX and Mario Maker. Why? Software sales is always the driver of hardware sales, and those titles aren't the sort that promote hardware adoption outside of Nintendo's pre-existing install base. The Wii U Generation proves that. And before you say that they may be 'enhanced' there's at least one problem with that theory: several of them make heavy use of second screen functionality, and in the case of Mario Maker it's virtually necessary to build courses efficiently. That leaves:

Mario Switch
Mario x Rabbids RPG
Skyim
Just Dance
GoG
Pokemon Stars
Pikmin
BG&E

The problem is that you're looking at that list as a Nintendo fan, and not as a non-Nintendo prospective buyer. In shortly, that is a launch lineup that appeals to Nintendo's base and few other people. I won't even bother to address Just Dance or GoG for obvious reasons.

Super Mario Switch
A 64/Sunshine style 3D Mario will do well among Nintendo fans, no doubt, and might draw some nostalgia-drive defectors back but likely not huge amounts; we've already discussed the draw of 3D vsersus 2D. It's a title from the franchine that has consistently been the most successful at moving hardware. That's why I'm flabbergasted that they're bundling Splatoon in its place. I know that, in their 'creativity'-addled minds, Nintendo believe that they'll get buyers to shell out for the Splatoon bundle, and the name recognition for the Mario franchise will convert a second attachment sale. Unless the carts are substantially cheaper than floor price for Wii U software, I don't buy that thinking at all.

LoZ: Breath of the Wild
Another contender from a strong franchise in terms of critical and user acclaim, and sales. However, this title is one that doesn't translate well outside of the Nintendo fanbase, especially as a adventure game, when compared to third-party games in the genre. The reception to its gameplay elements have been largely positive, but it's easy to be positive when one can play it for free, on free hardware, at E3. It's entirely different when one has to make a hardware commitment on one's own dime. There's also the MN9 x-factor of fanbase dissatisfaction caused by the repeated delays, especially abandoning it as a Wii U title during the console's commercial lifespan when it actually might have helped to promote sales, in essence making it a bitter epitaph. I'm not saying that it will negatively affect sales but I can't say that it won't either.

Mario x Rabbids RPG
Mario RPGs are a losing proposition in terms of system-sellers, or even being strong titles in general. Whilst the fandom for those titles is very vocal (and I'm among them for titles pre-SPM), it's also a small one; the trend line for the titles has cratered and a crossover with something as queerly niche as Rabbids won't carry the sort of spectacle draw that one might find in a Mario x Sonic crossover, to say nothing of a dedicated fandom that generally feels ignored after the dual nightmares of Sticker Star and Color Splash.

Skyrim SE
If it releases, it will be aged six months when it comes out (assuming it's a launch title), and given the general consensus that it's a buggy 'remaster' of little redeeming value (5.5 - 6.1 average user score), I see nothing to suggest that most gamers won't have purchased it already for another systems. Remember, in order to grow beyond the Wii U install base, the Switch will have to transition a sizable portion of the 3DS install base and draw from other console enthusiasts and PC gamers, and that's why they're going to be courting third-party support. In the latter two categories of prospective buyers, they will almost certainly already own the title and won't invest in the Switch hardware to play the remaster.

Pokemon Stars
Stars will be a strong draw, absolutely no question, but presently it's slated for holiday 2017 at the earliest, and that's a real problem for first year hardware anchoring.

Pikmin
A singular mechanic game that has a loyal fanbase but one that has consistently struggled to move beyond its initial enthusiast base. Sales peaked with the first title and sales have eroded, slowly but steadily, since. Even within the Nintendo install base, this is not a system mover.

BG&E
Not a sequel, which would be a huge draw, but a quasi-remaster/reboot, and I have a hard time believing that non-Nintendo buyers from the last generation will buy a Switch just to double dip, especially when I can guarantee that the game's exclusivity will be short-lived (a year at most).

In short, the Switch needs a compelling exclusive library (non-ports) and strong third-party support in the first year, and if these are the big names being discussed, I'm not impressed with its prospects.
 
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I wrote at length as to how PlayStation's forward position is weak enough that multi-platform support for weaker hardware is not a given or even probable, which is extremely important to the Switch's viability during its most important period of commercial availability. That's perfectly germane to the discussion, so please stop trying to score points like this is a upper school debate.
I just told the truth like it is. There was no points scoring, I just wanted to get back on topic that's all. We are now back on topic so (as in after all of this off topic stuff) so all good.

Here's my problem with the launch lineup. First, let's remove the Wii U ports: Splatoon, Smash, MK8, XCX and Mario Maker. Why? Software sales is always the driver of hardware sales, and those titles aren't the sort that promote hardware adoption outside of Nintendo's pre-existing install base. The Wii U Generation proves that. And before you say that they may be 'enhanced' there's at least one problem with that theory: several of them make heavy use of second screen functionality, and in the case of Mario Maker it's virtually necessary to build courses efficiently.
I agree with you mostly but a game like XCX is something people new to the Switch will buy. If that was on the PS4 ro XB1 tons of people would have bought it. XCX on the Switch I think is a good idea. The other games will not be affected by the lack of dual screen. They will be affected by their core audience already owning them on the WiiU and possibly loathe to rebuy them.

The problem is that you're looking at that list as a Nintendo fan, and not as a non-Nintendo prospective buyer. In shortly, that is a launch lineup that appeals to Nintendo's base and few other people.
Nintendo's base is very large so that's not too much of an issue. Most of that base is 3DS users. History has shown that people will play indepth 3D games on their 3DS. They sell pretty well. Sure the Switch is a totally different kind of portability to the 3DS but if the console price is right I think many of the 3DS fans will get a Switch.

The people who don't own a WiiU or 3DS which you have mentioned, we can't assume they do or don't like Nintendo style games. Many of them were put off by the WiiU's bad launch. I think the launch window line up might entice some of them to get a Switch. It's hard to tell. We'll know more after January 13.

Super Mario Switch
Judging by the interest in Yooka-Laylee by people who are not traditionally Nintendo fans, I'd say the 3D collectathon is not a dead genre. It just has to be done very well to get the fans to buy it. Sure I agree that this is more tailored towards Nintendo fans but others might get it if it's good enough.

LoZ: Breath of the Wild
I feel this is the one Zelda game in the entire 30 years that does translate to the non Nintendo fans. This game is almsot nothing like any Zelda game before it. Most of the traditional Zelda conventions are thrown out of the door. This feels to me a lot more like a traditional 3D RPG then the average Zelda game. This not at launch if the rumours are currect would be a blow to the Switch.

Mario x Rabbids RPG
If this game is true it's a bad idea full stop. Paper Mario N64 and Thousand Year Door were PPer Mario games everyone could enjoy. Nintendo with it's infinite wisdon to vhange everything up and not keep a good thing going made Sticker Star and Colour Splash. SS is garbage. CS is good but the combat, having one time use cards and choosing them every round is annoying as all hell. If this new Mario game is anything like CS it will not get many sales.

Skyrim SE
This is a good idea I guess. But I don't think it'll get many sales, just like all the numerous reboots and ports at the WIiU launch didn't get many sales either. Who really wants Skyrim and does not already have it? Almost no one. I might get it but that's an afterthought only. It's totally not on the top of my to buy list for Switch games. That's the catch really. Many Nintendo fans will not have played this but they would rather play SM Switch or Something else more Nintendo vibe than Skyrim. Still Not much dev time lost as it's only a port.

Pokemon Stars
This could bomb if it's just a Sun/Moon port because everyone who wants it has it now on the 3DS. Nintendo need to give us a reason to buy this/

Yes this is not a console seller. Never was and never will be.

I can't see Nintendo fans wanting this. This really will not get that amny sales.

In short, the Switch needs a compelling exclusive library (non-ports) and strong third-party support in the first year, and if these are the big names being discussed, I'm not impressed with its prospects.
There's a lot of developers that are supposedly on board with the Switch that have not announced their plans yet. Nintendo put out that image of some of the developers making Switch games. I think after January 13 we'll know more. If not much changes in January 13 then I'll agree with your overall assessment. But right now I am saying I don't have enough information to make my own assessment of the situation.
 
I agree with you mostly but a game like XCX is something people new to the Switch will buy. If that was on the PS4 ro XB1 tons of people would have bought it. XCX on the Switch I think is a good idea. The other games will not be affected by the lack of dual screen. They will be affected by their core audience already owning them on the WiiU and possibly loathe to rebuy them.

I afraid I don't agree with this in the main. Without name recognition, sales generally don't materialise in the West for JRPGS, and the spirtual successor of a spiritual successor of a spiritual successor (Xenogears -> Xenosaga -> Xenoblade Chronicles -> Xenoblade Chronicles X) does not have the draw. The 3DS port of XC had just slightly over half of the sales of the original Wii title, despite a roughly even install base (when the 101m Wii install base is normalised for non-casual gamers, which is the actual audience for a title like that). XCX performed better on an attachment basis, but as with most games for the Wii U, that's a function of the drought.

Nintendo's base is very large so that's not too much of an issue. Most of that base is 3DS users. History has shown that people will play indepth 3D games on their 3DS. They sell pretty well. Sure the Switch is a totally different kind of portability to the 3DS but if the console price is right I think many of the 3DS fans will get a Switch.

The Nintendo handheld install base, the one that it actually needs to transition to the Switch, and especially in its strongest market (Japan), is shrinking. Dedicated gaming handhelds account for only one-third of the gaming market in Japan, and it's a market that is increasingly skewing older and having less disposable income, as the cost of caring for a much larger elderly-dependent class explodes.

As for your assertion that history has shown that people favour in-depth games on the 3DS, nothing could be further from the truth. The games that have sold on the 3DS are slogging grind games and those where you can play in five minute chunks. In even the top ten of 3DS sales, the only one that can legitimately be view as an in-depth RPG is OoT, and that sold half of its N64 incarnation despite having improved graphics and functionality, and the 3DS having a install base twice the size of the N64 console. And even if it were the case that 3DS gamers were so inclined to those experiences, the specs and price of the Switch reasonably limit the duration of those experience significantly because of battery constraints.

The people who don't own a WiiU or 3DS which you have mentioned, we can't assume they do or don't like Nintendo style games. Many of them were put off by the WiiU's bad launch. I think the launch window line up might entice some of them to get a Switch. It's hard to tell. We'll know more after January 13.

The launch period failure is something that I've spoken about numerous times in this thread, and why I'm so pessimistic about the Switch's success; if it doesn't have massive success in the first twelve months of availability it's going to fail; and before you bring up the 3DS as a disqualifier to that assertion, it had no legitimate competition. Everything that I've seen thus far seems a continuation of Nintendo's ready-fire-aim approach to its business in the last two generations. The issue is that in most stable product categories, consumers will tolerate a primary duopoly, plus a distant third satellite to handle the niche. This is because of brand equity and enthusiasm. Sony and XBOX have the brand equity to build and maintain coalitions of third-party support, whereas Nintendo does not. Even when they had the most successful console (Wii) it had rubbish third-party support and huge swaths of shovelware.

Judging by the interest in Yooka-Laylee by people who are not traditionally Nintendo fans, I'd say the 3D collectathon is not a dead genre. It just has to be done very well to get the fans to buy it. Sure I agree that this is more tailored towards Nintendo fans but others might get it if it's good enough.

The difference is that Yooka-Laylee is as platform agnostic of a game as one can find these days. The value proposition of all of the launch titles (except Skyrim, and BG&E to a lesser extent) have to overcome a consumer inertia multiplier. If we assume that game carts are price similarly to Wii U games, the draw of any one game is tempered not just by the $60 price tag, not just the $250 console cost, but also the cost of a second console that will, in all probability, be required to play the more popular multi-plats. That's a steep hill for the Switch to climb, when one can buy a PS4Pro or XBONE S (and Scorpio eventually) and have four years of software titles.

I feel this is the one Zelda game in the entire 30 years that does translate to the non Nintendo fans. This game is almsot nothing like any Zelda game before it. Most of the traditional Zelda conventions are thrown out of the door. This feels to me a lot more like a traditional 3D RPG then the average Zelda game. This not at launch if the rumours are currect would be a blow to the Switch.

It's not really unique at all. It's a mixture of OoT's third-person 3D gameplay, LoZ non-linearity and Zelda II RPG progression, with a bit of limited Minecraft crafting in there. Interesting in a vacuum, but the title carries with it the same caveats for a non-Nintendo gamer as any other title.

This could bomb if it's just a Sun/Moon port because everyone who wants it has it now on the 3DS. Nintendo need to give us a reason to buy this

I would agree with this to a point if every Pokemon game wasn't the same. They are and they still sell, and loads of Pokemon players have been clamouring for years for a home console Pokemon experience. It won't be anything special, but then it doesn't need to be.

There's a lot of developers that are supposedly on board with the Switch that have not announced their plans yet. Nintendo put out that image of some of the developers making Switch games. I think after January 13 we'll know more. If not much changes in January 13 then I'll agree with your overall assessment. But right now I am saying I don't have enough information to make my own assessment of the situation.

Third-party developers were similarly ebullient about the Wii U, and we saw what happened that console. The problem is that Nintendo continues to pursue hardware/input uniqueness as a value differentiatior in an industry that, because of costs, has adopted the path of least resistance. Until I see real evidence to the contrary, and looking at its history as an indicator, I have no reason to believe that that strategy will suddenly become successful.
 
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I wrote at length as to how PlayStation's forward position is weak enough that multi-platform support for weaker hardware is not a given or even probable, which is extremely important to the Switch's viability during its most important period of commercial availability. That's perfectly germane to the discussion, so please stop trying to score points like this is a upper school debate.



Here's my problem with the launch lineup. First, let's remove the Wii U ports: Splatoon, Smash, MK8, XCX and Mario Maker. Why? Software sales is always the driver of hardware sales, and those titles aren't the sort that promote hardware adoption outside of Nintendo's pre-existing install base. The Wii U Generation proves that. And before you say that they may be 'enhanced' there's at least one problem with that theory: several of them make heavy use of second screen functionality, and in the case of Mario Maker it's virtually necessary to build courses efficiently. That leaves:

Mario Switch
Mario x Rabbids RPG
Skyim
Just Dance
GoG
Pokemon Stars
Pikmin
BG&E

The problem is that you're looking at that list as a Nintendo fan, and not as a non-Nintendo prospective buyer. In shortly, that is a launch lineup that appeals to Nintendo's base and few other people. I won't even bother to address Just Dance or GoG for obvious reasons.

Super Mario Switch
A 64/Sunshine style 3D Mario will do well among Nintendo fans, no doubt, and might draw some nostalgia-drive defectors back but likely not huge amounts; we've already discussed the draw of 3D vsersus 2D. It's a title from the franchine that has consistently been the most successful at moving hardware. That's why I'm flabbergasted that they're bundling Splatoon in its place. I know that, in their 'creativity'-addled minds, Nintendo believe that they'll get buyers to shell out for the Splatoon bundle, and the name recognition for the Mario franchise will convert a second attachment sale. Unless the carts are substantially cheaper than floor price for Wii U software, I don't buy that thinking at all.

LoZ: Breath of the Wild
Another contender from a strong franchise in terms of critical and user acclaim, and sales. However, this title is one that doesn't translate well outside of the Nintendo fanbase, especially as a adventure game, when compared to third-party games in the genre. The reception to its gameplay elements have been largely positive, but it's easy to be positive when one can play it for free, on free hardware, at E3. It's entirely different when one has to make a hardware commitment on one's own dime. There's also the MN9 x-factor of fanbase dissatisfaction caused by the repeated delays, especially abandoning it as a Wii U title during the console's commercial lifespan when it actually might have helped to promote sales, in essence making it a bitter epitaph. I'm not saying that it will negatively affect sales but I can't say that it won't either.

Mario x Rabbids RPG
Mario RPGs are a losing proposition in terms of system-sellers, or even being strong titles in general. Whilst the fandom for those titles is very vocal (and I'm among them for titles pre-SPM), it's also a small one; the trend line for the titles has cratered and a crossover with something as queerly niche as Rabbids won't carry the sort of spectacle draw that one might find in a Mario x Sonic crossover, to say nothing of a dedicated fandom that generally feels ignored after the dual nightmares of Sticker Star and Color Splash.

Skyrim SE
If it releases, it will be aged six months when it comes out (assuming it's a launch title), and given the general consensus that it's a buggy 'remaster' of little redeeming value (5.5 - 6.1 average user score), I see nothing to suggest that most gamers won't have purchased it already for another systems. Remember, in order to grow beyond the Wii U install base, the Switch will have to transition a sizable portion of the 3DS install base and draw from other console enthusiasts and PC gamers, and that's why they're going to be courting third-party support. In the latter two categories of prospective buyers, they will almost certainly already own the title and won't invest in the Switch hardware to play the remaster.

Pokemon Stars
Stars will be a strong draw, absolutely no question, but presently it's slated for holiday 2017 at the earliest, and that's a real problem for first year hardware anchoring.

Pikmin
A singular mechanic game that has a loyal fanbase but one that has consistently struggled to move beyond its initial enthusiast base. Sales peaked with the first title and sales have eroded, slowly but steadily, since. Even within the Nintendo install base, this is not a system mover.

BG&E
Not a sequel, which would be a huge draw, but a quasi-remaster/reboot, and I have a hard time believing that non-Nintendo buyers from the last generation will buy a Switch just to double dip, especially when I can guarantee that the game's exclusivity will be short-lived (a year at most).

In short, the Switch needs a compelling exclusive library (non-ports) and strong third-party support in the first year, and if these are the big names being discussed, I'm not impressed with its prospects.

Long essays - do you work for a marketing firm and Nintendo is an account?
 
Long essays - do you work for a marketing firm and Nintendo is an account?

:p If I did, and they were, I couldn't tell you since there are significant NDAs for that sort of thing. That said, one of my areas of service is data tabulation and analysis of aggregate market research of mixed methodology (phone, web, location testing), and brand positioning and imaging research.
 
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....What is an insignificant NDA?

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When I say significant, I refer to the degree to which an aggrieved party will pursue legal action against the party that breaks the NDA. Given how litigious Nintendo is, in virtually all instances, it wouldn't be my first choice to break one.

That said, I thought my emoji was enough to make my non-denial denial clearly facetious. While I have done work generally in digital entertainment, Nintendo has never been my client, nor, to my knowledge, the client of any party that has ever contracted my services.
 
I afraid I don't agree with this in the main. Without name recognition, sales generally don't materialise in the West for JRPGS, and the spirtual successor of a spiritual successor of a spiritual successor (Xenogears -> Xenosaga -> Xenoblade Chronicles -> Xenoblade Chronicles X) does not have the draw. The 3DS port of XC had just slightly over half of the sales of the original Wii title, despite a roughly even install base (when the 101m Wii install base is normalised for non-casual gamers, which is the actual audience for a title like that). XCX performed better on an attachment basis, but as with most games for the Wii U, that's a function of the drought.
At the time few people wanted to buy a N3DS specirically for one game. I think that played a huge part in that.
JRPGs do need name recognition though. XCX does have that. Is it a good idea on the Switch? Yes cause it's an easy to remake port. Will it sell well on the Switch? Maybe, maybe not. One on those remakes this is that just has to be done regardless of the sales numbers. Not very business like but the fans and new to Switch/Nintendo people will appreciate it.

The Nintendo handheld install base, the one that it actually needs to transition to the Switch, and especially in its strongest market (Japan), is shrinking. Dedicated gaming handhelds account for only one-third of the gaming market in Japan, and it's a market that is increasingly skewing older and having less disposable income, as the cost of caring for a much larger elderly-dependent class explodes.

As for your assertion that history has shown that people favour in-depth games on the 3DS, nothing could be further from the truth. The games that have sold on the 3DS are slogging grind games and those where you can play in five minute chunks. In even the top ten of 3DS sales, the only one that can legitimately be view as an in-depth RPG is OoT, and that sold half of its N64 incarnation despite having improved graphics and functionality, and the 3DS having a install base twice the size of the N64 console. And even if it were the case that 3DS gamers were so inclined to those experiences, the specs and price of the Switch reasonably limit the duration of those experience significantly because of battery constraints.
Battery is a serious issue and we will want hard info on. The iPad does battery well and the iPad's material cost is not that high. Of cause this dos not factor in R&D and other things. We know Nintendo refuse to sell the Swith at a loss. But how close to break even Nintendo want to go with Switch hardware I believe will be revealed in due time.

Pokemon Sun/Moon sold well so far and that is an RPG of sorts. I think the issue is overall handheld gaming is shrinking but Nintendo's portable gaming is doing ok still. I don't think Nintendo would have made the Switch as it is if they believed portable gaming as a thing is RIP soon. I do agree that this is an issue. But not for now, in a few years down the track. Portable gaming is not dead now. In 5-10 years it very well could be, but that's the post Switch console to deal with that.

The launch period failure is something that I've spoken about numerous times in this thread, and why I'm so pessimistic about the Switch's success; if it doesn't have massive success in the first twelve months of availability it's going to fail; and before you bring up the 3DS as a disqualifier to that assertion, it had no legitimate competition. Everything that I've seen thus far seems a continuation of Nintendo's ready-fire-aim approach to its business in the last two generations. The issue is that in most stable product categories, consumers will tolerate a primary duopoly, plus a distant third satellite to handle the niche. This is because of brand equity and enthusiasm. Sony and XBOX have the brand equity to build and maintain coalitions of third-party support, whereas Nintendo does not. Even when they had the most successful console (Wii) it had rubbish third-party support and huge swaths of shovelware.
Under a business standpoint, failure is to make a loss. The WiiU did end up breaking even roughly. Took 4 years to do so after the terrible first year. Does not make the WiiU a failure but I will agree that this kind of delayed break even is totally not wanted. It's best to start making decent profits from day 1.

The difference is that Yooka-Laylee is as platform agnostic of a game as one can find these days. The value proposition of all of the launch titles (except Skyrim, and BG&E to a lesser extent) have to overcome a consumer inertia multiplier. If we assume that game carts are price similarly to Wii U games, the draw of any one game is tempered not just by the $60 price tag, not just the $250 console cost, but also the cost of a second console that will, in all probability, be required to play the more popular multi-plats. That's a steep hill for the Switch to climb, when one can buy a PS4Pro or XBONE S (and Scorpio eventually) and have four years of software titles.
All of the new consles vs established consoles have this to deal with. Not a new thing. The remakes are basically established games. Having the WiiU's greatest hits ported to the Switch helps quite a lot. Does not put it on par with the PS4 library but it's a good start.

It's not really unique at all. It's a mixture of OoT's third-person 3D gameplay, LoZ non-linearity and Zelda II RPG progression, with a bit of limited Minecraft crafting in there. Interesting in a vacuum, but the title carries with it the same caveats for a non-Nintendo gamer as any other title.
We can say any modern RPG game is not unique if we nit pick out certain points. Overall BotW is very different to all previous Zelda games. There has been considerable interest in it from people and developers not traditionally associated or favourable towards Nintendo. Sure the game is still Zelda, so it carries some Zelda like traditions, but far less then any Zelda game before it.

I would agree with this to a point if every Pokemon game wasn't the same. They are and they still sell, and loads of Pokemon players have been clamouring for years for a home console Pokemon experience. It won't be anything special, but then it doesn't need to be.
I agree. The main series pokemon games are just better and better versions of the same thing. Catch pokemon, battle gym leaders and beat some overarching force with said caught pokemon to beat the game. The other games like SNAP are different but the main ones are mostly just all rehash. I believe this will be nice on the Switch if it is a Sun/Moon remake or port. But many people will not buy it cause they already bought it on the 3DS.

Third-party developers were similarly ebullient about the Wii U, and we saw what happened that console. The problem is that Nintendo continues to pursue hardware/input uniqueness as a value differentiatior in an industry that, because of costs, has adopted the path of least resistance. Until I see real evidence to the contrary, and looking at its history as an indicator, I have no reason to believe that that strategy will suddenly become successful.
The 3rd party consoles didn't really screw over the launch. Nintendo did by not having a single first party console selling game at the WiiU launch. The 3rd party games people will by alongside the console selling game but not without it. That's the catch. I just hope on the January 13 keynote Nintendo really show us their first party console selling games and really put effort into saying why they are consle selling.
 
The 3rd party consoles didn't really screw over the launch. Nintendo did by not having a single first party console selling game at the WiiU launch. The 3rd party games people will by alongside the console selling game but not without it. That's the catch. I just hope on the January 13 keynote Nintendo really show us their first party console selling games and really put effort into saying why they are consle selling.

The price was another.

I can see if Nintendo will try to break even with the Switch.

I cannot see an average person, who is open to any console and game, walk into a store and see the XBox One S's and PS4's at $249 and then a "Switch" at $299 that you can "take with" - most people will have a phone/tablet for "take with" games (though they're not the same games).

I know of people buying a current gen console, then buy just a used GC Comptible Wii for around $40. I mentioned in another post, GC games are highly sought after still, especially since Nintendo made the GC Controller available again. Having a Wii enables you to play many Wii and GC games.

Nintendo should've made the Switch just a mobile package at $199, then have the dock available separately. This will get people to at least consider a Switch over a $249 current gen console.
 
The price was another.

I can see if Nintendo will try to break even with the Switch.

I cannot see an average person, who is open to any console and game, walk into a store and see the XBox One S's and PS4's at $249 and then a "Switch" at $299 that you can "take with" - most people will have a phone/tablet for "take with" games (though they're not the same games).

I know of people buying a current gen console, then buy just a used GC Comptible Wii for around $40. I mentioned in another post, GC games are highly sought after still, especially since Nintendo made the GC Controller available again. Having a Wii enables you to play many Wii and GC games.

Nintendo should've made the Switch just a mobile package at $199, then have the dock available separately. This will get people to at least consider a Switch over a $249 current gen console.
Many well made points there but you forget to mention one thing. Most of the people who want a PS4 or XB1 already have one. The $249 price you mention is only a thing if you get the current PS4 and XB1 owners to rebuy the console but the slim versions.

Also new consoles cost more then older consoles remade into slim versions.
Finally, the word "console generation" is slowly becoming irrelevant. The console makers are using their own timeframes. Sony and MS are on in the same playingfield both releasing hardware updates. Nintendo ia releasing a whole new console. This is not Nintendo releasong a console mid cycle, it's not MS, and Sony entering a new generation with updated old console hardware either. What it is, is the console makers not following the traditional cycle periods and doing what they feel is best.

The Switch is almost 5 years since the WiiU, the same 5 yeae cycle Nintendo has used for decades. I feel Nintendo's approx 5 year cycle will not be a thing for the post Switch console.
 
Reddit rumour. Pretty big one. Info leaked from a Foxconn worker.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NintendoSw...r_someone_who_producing_switch_at_foxconn_is/

Dock
There's no advanced technology in the dock, it seems pretty cheap and light, feels really plastic, no extra power, it just a output; * 1x USB3.0, 1x hdmi, on the side 2xUSB2.0 on the dock; * There's no fan on the dock, but hole on the back of the dock to allow air absorbing then out from the console's top vent.

Console
Looking at the screen it looks like is 1080p multi-touch screen, according to the spec show up on the software test * Can see the 5x0.8cm heat sink from the vent on the 0.8cm width, 12cm L shape heat pipe, looks quite shabby but heat performance is really good, not too hot from the console, the software demo testing is millions of fish and running almost 8 days, there's no single frames drops *The screen is not very bright, speculated can't see clear from outdoor *Looking at the core, it's a 10x10 core, from the test, CPU 1785mhz, GPU 921mhz, EMC 1600mhz *Speculated CPU is arm A73 pascal, much powerful than X1, when tested it only shows ARM_V8 structure hence the speculation *Confirmed it's USB-C charging *Speculated the core is made by TSMC, but it doesn't have its logo on it, looking really good *Running thousands of fish software demo to make sure the system is running fine *Saw orange and blue controller *Heating fan noise is not loud *Power adapter is external *There's 4G console version, confirmed *Can be charged while playing *Battery 4310mA, 3.7 not changable *It's been testing over 11750min, it's all running stably and smoothly, not single frame drops using the software demo (fish) *Speculated 2x ram = 4GB *About 300g weight, thought it was 1000g or something and was pretty surprise it's 300g console only (excluding joycon etc), used digital scale to weigh

Joycon
There's 2 shoulder button on each joy-con, they are called SL, SR *It's very complex inside, apart from the motherboard in the console, screen, Joy-con is the most valuable in the whole system *The battery inside Joy-con is about 5cm x 2cm x 0.5cm *Very light, about 50g * (22 Nov update) Battery 525mA

Production
*Produced 2100 units per day in one line, the whole factory can produce 20000per day *Very good quality control, don't worry about the build quality *They shipped to Japan, and Australia recently

Devkit Version
A much powerful version, producing 2000x units for now *The core is 1x times bigger than the one above,200m㎡, looking it looks like 12x18 *2 extra ram, this version is 8GB *2x wifi, 1hdmi, 1x mini dp, 1x ethernet, 2x unidentified socket, 3x network led indicator, *Looks much more complex than the normal version, 6, 7 extra unidentified storage, different socket (22 Nov 2016 update) Confirmed it's a devkit, and Nintendo was coming to exam the devkit today *No dock for this version for now *Can be plugged into TV without docking, power is inside *Speculated provided the core is only include GPU, it would be even more powerful than PS4 pro *Screen is the same size as the normal one *It's much more powerful, but also much heavier, not feeling great in hand, speculated for 4K gaming *Haven't seen such a huge core, and it's 16nm + 100mm2 main core *There's no battery inside this version

[edit] When he says the demo is millions of fish. It's just that, millions of fish on the screen done in unity to test performance benchmarks and other things. Here's a video of it.

I'm quite shocked (in a very good way) to hear the devkit console part is only 300g (excluding Joycon) and the core is made by TMSC.
 
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I wouodnt believe any rumour really. I used to spread fake ones years ago (had a successful one for Pokemon Gen 5 and the Wii), it's easy to write something convincing like that. You won't get any leaks from the production plant anyways. I don't think there are any for Apple and they're Foxconns biggest production partner.

But I came here to say I'm loving Pokemon Sun and I really want to play it on my TV as well as my 3DS. No doubt the next gen of Pokemon will run on it but March is ages away, and I doubt we'll get a gen 7 port at launch!
 
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My passion for Nintendo died around the time of the Wii. The features just turned into gimmicks for me.

Their first party titles is the only thing I love about Nintendo. Games like Super Mario Galaxy were fantastic, the controls were spot on for something you would otherwise think would be impossible. Even thinking back now I'm amazed I was able to even play the game let alone play it to completion. Just thinking about it makes me want to hook up my Wii and play it.

However their just isn't enough to keep me entertained. As much as I want too I'm not going to buy a new console for Zelda. Because I know it will be like my Wii and Wii U and I'll only have 3-4 games for it.

I think it will be a hit amongst portable gamers, but for the at home gamer it just seems like it will be yet another underpowered system that gets massively watered down 3rd party titles.

Its ironic I sound like such a spec whore because I'm pro Apple and I firmly believe its all about the experience not the gigaflops and multihertz but with Nintendo (for me) there just isn't ENOUGH of that experience. Thinking about it now actually Nintendo and Apple have a lot in common with the way the run and conduct business...hmmm... I think the difference is Apple isn't trying to make that all-in-one device as much as they make it seem like they are (OS X vs iOS) whereas Nintendo is with the Switch and with an all-in-one device comes compromises. Does that even make any sense? lol
 
whereas Nintendo is with the Switch and with an all-in-one device comes compromises. Does that even make any sense? lol
I'm curious - what compromises?

I don't buy many games for my Nintendo platforms but I always find myself preferring them overall. Even though their just once-in-a-generation games like Zelda, Smash, Kart, (sometimes) Pokemon have no comparative titles on the PS4... and I spend as much time on that as my Nintendo systems.

But yeah when it comes to multiplatform games I always get the PS4 version - just because the infrastructure is better with cloud saves, cross platform, PC and Vita remote play. All my indie titles are on PSN. I hope Nintendo copies PSN as an infrastructure!
 
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