Posting here seems to have done the trick, in that placebo sort of way. Overnight my order went to 'Processing' and my card was charged, then in the last hour it's flipped to 'Shipped' and there's a DPD handover link (which for now just notes that they're expecting it, and gives the parcel location as 'Sender'). App delivery date is still showing as 10th, but the website says Friday 4th and in much bigger letters, so I'm choosing to believe that one.
MBP 16Gb/1Tb, ordered 18th November with a delivery estimate of 3-10th December. 'Express delivery'.