Unhappy with the M1 Macs? Wait for the early 2021 Macs with Apple Silicon

[Hexley]

It would be really cool if people didn't phrase statements that are pure conjecture as fact.

I realise that we now live in an "alternate facts", post-truth world but still. Damn.

How about, "I think" or "I predict" or "based on X it is likely".

It would be great if people would spend time looking at https://buyersguide.macrumors.com/#mac to understand how frequent Macs get a product refresh.

It would also be awesome if people looked back in 2006 where in $75 billion market cap Apple took less than 7 months to transition their whole Mac line to Intel.

Today's more than $2 trillion market cap Apple can move faster than 210 days.

Up to you if you want to buy an M1 Mac assuming that they'll not refresh the rest of the product line until 2022 because that's how often Apple refreshes Macs. "They do it every 2 years."

 

[JouniS]

The transition from PPC to Intel was based on existing technology. Business interests could dictate the schedule, because the new chips were already available.

The transition to Apple Silicon is driven by technology readiness. If the new chips don't exist yet or they are not good enough, it doesn't matter what the execs would like to do. The M1 was an incremental improvement over the A14. For a full Mac Pro replacement, Apple will need at least 4x more CPU cores, 10x more GPU power, and 100x higher memory capacity. We outsiders don't really know how far Apple is from achieving that.

 

[Fomalhaut]

14” rumor has been floating around within the last 12 months. It will happen some time 2022.

M1 Macs represent ~80% of all Macs shipped. From a cashflow point of view this will increase sales the most from and supply chain point of view it is the least complex to manufacture and deliver.

Mac Pro refresh to Apple silicon will occur during WWDC 2021

swap those two dates around and you might be right. I would be astonished if the Mac Pro were released before a more powerful MacBook Pro. Increasing the M1 to say 8+4 Cpu cores and 12 GPU cores will be a lot easier than matching the Mac Pro’s 28-core/56-thread Intel Xeon with 16GB HBM2 discrete GPUs

 

[NJRonbo]

You are correct they do not have TB4 or USB4. What I meant was the Apple Silicon Mac models that will replace the Intel models will have TB4 & USB4.

The transition will be completed in less than 210 days from Mac event of the M1 Macs last week.

That will coincide with WWDC 2021 where in the iMac Pro and Mac Pro will debut.

Since you are the expert here, what again were your predictions for a Pro version of the Mini?

 

[SlCKB0Y]

Up to you if you want to buy an M1 Mac assuming that they'll not refresh the rest of the product line until 2022 because that's how often Apple refreshes Macs

I'm not making any claims. I'm just saying no one knows and you're talking out of your arse. You're the one being a prognosticator on all things Mac, based on a transition that occurred 15 years ago to existing and established hardware platform. I'm not even saying you're wrong, I'm saying make it clearer that these are nothing more than predictions. People less tech savvy than you might actually make purchasing decisions after reading your source-less ideas.

As people have pointed out earlier, the switch to Intel was much easier from a technological standpoint. All the hardware existed and from the OS point of view, Apple had been running OS X on Intel hardware since the very beginning. The main challenge for them was getting all the developers and customers to follow. My guess would be they knew from the start they would beat their deadline and purposefully under-promised and over delivered to wow the critics.

I'd argue even the transition to PPC was more of a challenge, partnering with IBM to scale down their enterprise level hardware.

This time around Apple is going into the technological unknown. No company has ever had to scale the performance and power consumption of an ARM based architecture up to the levels we are talking about and release it into a consumer product.

 

[smoking monkey]

13" now has the Magic Keyboard. That's a slight redesign.

Nope. The 13 got that with the update earlier this year.
You're really bad at this!

 

[Hexley]

swap those two dates around and you might be right. I would be astonished if the Mac Pro were released before a more powerful MacBook Pro. Increasing the M1 to say 8+4 Cpu cores and 12 GPU cores will be a lot easier than matching the Mac Pro’s 28-core/56-thread Intel Xeon with 16GB HBM2 discrete GPUs

I'm more astonished that its your belief with little basis

To clarify these are my timelines based on antecedents during the 210 days out of 2 years it took Apple to switch to Intel

First Intel Mac to start the transition arrived on 10 January 2006 and the last to complete the transition arrived on 7 August 2006. This is 210 days out of the 2 years claimed during WWDC 2005 keynote.

Listed below are Macs getting Apple Silicon with old Intel case design to fit within the 210 day time line that started to arrive on Tuesday 17 November 2020 and will end by around Tuesday, 15 June 2021

January-April 2021

• iMac 21.5" and 27"
• Macbook Pro four TB4/USB4 port 13" and 16"
• Mac mini four TB4/USB4 port

June 2021

• Mac Pro
• iMac Pro

For redesigned bodies specific to Apple Silicon Macs will start by as early as late 2021 or 2022 Macs

I'm listing the year of each Intel Mac's last redesigned case that is still being used today.

• 2010 Mac mini
• 2012 iMac 21.5" & 27"
• 2017 iMac Pro
• 2018 Macbook 13"
• 2018 Macbook Air
• 2019 Macbook Pro 16"
• 2019 Mac Pro

For marketing purposes the redesign will be kept separate and delayed for at least 12 months from the Mac getting Apple Silicon to keep consumers focused on the transition.

The redesigned case that will come out in late 2021 or 2022 will also induce another round of purchases.

I bought a early 2008 Macbook Pro 15" with Intel it looks indistinguishable to the 2005 Macbook Pro 15" with PowerPC. The first unibody design came out in late 2008 Macbook Pro 15" making it distinctly Intel Mac.

These are the years that the Intel Macs used the PowerPC case design. Note that these Macs did not get a redesigned case the same year they moved to Intel

• 2006 iMac
• 2006-early 2008 Macbook Pro 15"
• 2006-2009 Macbook
• 2006-2009 Mac mini
• 2006-2012 Mac Pro

The Intel iMac had more than 1 case redesign.

I'd like to see a counter argument with citations to prove otherwise.

This written more for people who are making a future purchase.

I knew Apple was transitioning away as early as 2017 and confirmed by intel in 2019. I was too conservative to think that the improvements would be at least 20% rather than nearer to 200%.

If I knew that I would have never bought my 2017 dell gaming laptop or 2019 Macbook Pro 16".

Would have sold my 2013 Macbook Air or 2015 iMac last month when someone offered to buy it.

If I sold my 2013 Macbook Air I would have bought the early 2021 Macbook Pro 16" base model.

If I sold my 2015 iMac I would have bought the 2022 iMac with a redesigned body.

 

[Hexley]

I'm not making any claims. I'm just saying no one knows and you're talking out of your arse. You're the one being a prognosticator on all things Mac, based on a transition that occurred 15 years ago to existing and established hardware platform. I'm not even saying you're wrong, I'm saying make it clearer that these are nothing more than predictions. People less tech savvy than you might actually make purchasing decisions after reading your source-less ideas.

As people have pointed out earlier, the switch to Intel was much easier from a technological standpoint. All the hardware existed and from the OS point of view, Apple had been running OS X on Intel hardware since the very beginning. The main challenge for them was getting all the developers and customers to follow. My guess would be they knew from the start they would beat their deadline and purposefully under-promised and over delivered to wow the critics.

I'd argue even the transition to PPC was more of a challenge, partnering with IBM to scale down their enterprise level hardware.

This time around Apple is going into the technological unknown. No company has ever had to scale the performance and power consumption of an ARM based architecture up to the levels we are talking about and release it into a consumer product.

Dude... this is MACRUMORS a lot of the claims here are base-less and yet people buy into them.

Back in 2005 Apple was no more than a $75 billion company. Today it's a $2 trillion company.

So Apple who

• is second publicly traded company to breach $2 trillion market cap
• ships more iPhones and iPads with Apple Silicon chips than the whole PC industry ships PCs whether it be Intel or AMD
• shipped the first 5nm process chips while Intel struggles with 10nm process chips to this day.
• hired the best ex-Intel, ex-AMD and other top computer hardware engineers
• is a master in supply chain
• only R&D parts for their internal needs
• has the largest actual cash stockpile of any company globally

Cannot match or even shorten the transition to less than 210 days for higher-end chips that make up ~20% of all Macs shipped?

Let's see what WWDC 2021 will hold.

 

[Hexley]

Since you are the expert here, what again were your predictions for a Pro version of the Mini?

I never made any predictions on a Pro version of the Mini as there is no antecedents to it.

If you mean a four port TB4/USB4 Mac mini then I'm guessing it or the Macbook Pro 13" will receive the binned chips of the 16" and/or iMac.

The antecedents to chip binning would be the $999 Macbook Air with an M1 with 1 deactivated GPU core vs all other M1 Macs with 0 deactivated GPU cores.

 

[phil.544]

After reading this thread I really can’t decide if I should get a M1 MBA today and then upgrade to a 14” MBP whenever it will be released next spring or just wait for that moment.

This would involve getting rid of my late ‘16 13” MPB i7 16 today and then reselling or giving to a family member the M1 MBA.

One of the reason being, other than the itching to try the M1, the resale value of my ‘16 M1 that could be higher now than in 6 months... what would you all do?

 

[Hexley]

The transition from PPC to Intel was based on existing technology. Business interests could dictate the schedule, because the new chips were already available.

The transition to Apple Silicon is driven by technology readiness. If the new chips don't exist yet or they are not good enough, it doesn't matter what the execs would like to do. The M1 was an incremental improvement over the A14. For a full Mac Pro replacement, Apple will need at least 4x more CPU cores, 10x more GPU power, and 100x higher memory capacity. We outsiders don't really know how far Apple is from achieving that.

This is of course a simplification suitable for 5yo like me. So bare with me.

That's applicable to a $75 billion Apple but with more than $2 trillion I think they can everything in house.

M1 is an expansion of the A14 with TDP reaching 10-15W on a 5nm process.

Apple Silicon chip suitable for higher-end Mac mini & Macbook Pro 13", Macbook Pro 16", both iMacs, iMac Pro and Mac mini are just the following

• Application of the 5nm process
• Increasing transistors beyond 16 billion to billions more
• Increasing TDP from 15W to as much as 205W
• Increase power supply from 30W or less to as much as 60W, 96W, 150W, 310W, 500W or even 1.4kW
• increase bandwidth
• lower latency
• increase memory from 16GB to as much as 256GB, 1.5TB or beyond
• increase high-performance CPU cores beyond 4
• increase high-efficiency CPU cores beyond 4
• maintain or increase the 3x CPU performance per Watt
• increase GPU absolute performance beyond that of a Core i9 or Xeon to as much as a AMD Threadripper
• increase GPU cores beyond 8
• increase GPU absolute performance beyond that of the GeForce 1050 Ti to as much as a RTX 3090
• increase Neural Engine core beyond 16
• updated Big Sur to allow for eGPU support

For all of that to happen at the same 5nm process would mean a physically larger Apple Silicon chip with more active heat sink fan.

If you look at the Mac mini M1 teardown it was observed that the logic board of the M1, that is comparable to the dimensions of the iPhone 12, was smaller than Mac mini case and any past Intel Mac mini logic board.

What this means to me is that Apple Silicon at that absolute performance point, that can outperform any and all Intel Macs on single core scores and multi core scores except those of Xeon desktop chips, can take advantage of a larger case like a iMac 27" or Mac Pro allowing for a larger logic board to result in an increase in absolute performance.

 

[Hexley]

After reading this thread I really can’t decide if I should get a M1 MBA today and then upgrade to a 14” MBP whenever it will be released next spring or just wait for that moment.

This would involve getting rid of my late ‘16 13” MPB i7 16 today and then reselling or giving to a family member the M1 MBA.

One of the reason being, other than the itching to try the M1, the resale value of my ‘16 M1 that could be higher now than in 6 months... what would you all do?

Intel CEO says upgrade cycle is every 5-6 years.

If your use case will benefit with the M1 MBA then buy today.

If you have any gripes with any M1 Mac then wait for Janaury-April for higher-end Macs.

If you want a redesigned body then wait for late 2021 or later.

I have a 2012 Macbook Air and 2015 iMac 27".

Last month someone offered to buy my Mac as their broke down and the fella cannot afford more than $700.

I should have accepted before Mac event earlier this month.

If I sold my 2012 Macbook Air then I'd buy what I really wanted, the first Macbook Pro 16" with Apple Silicon coming our early 2021. Sadly I bought the first Macbook Pro 16" with Intel.

If I sold my 2015 iMac 27" then I'd buy a redesigned body iMac by year 2022.

 

[Serban55]

Comparing what happened 15 years ago with what is happening now ..its strange
EVEN if the chips would be ready for next year, TSMC cannot deliver in 2021 chips for the mac entire line up and for iphones and ipads too
So, like other say, remove the mac pro from this wwdc, in 2021 we will have the 24” imac almost for sure and the 16” mbp and maybe also the 14” mbp
The rest, if there will be, will be just a little bonus
We heard the rumours that the custom gpu for the 16” apple is working..i bet fir the mac pro nothing is finished , after the chips will be finish there will be 4-6 months of internal testing and after that an presentation can happen
So at earliest we can see a presentation of mac pro in fall 2021 with an release date for customers in 2022

 

[NJRonbo]

I never made any predictions on a Pro version of the Mini as there is no antecedents to it.

If you mean a four port TB4/USB4 Mac mini then I'm guessing it or the Macbook Pro 13" will receive the binned chips of the 16" and/or iMac.

The antecedents to chip binning would be the $999 Macbook Air with an M1 with 1 deactivated GPU core vs all other M1 Macs with 0 deactivated GPU cores.

A Pro version would be one that would have the next generation chip and the option to choose more than 16GB ram

And you are saying...when?

 

[JouniS]

Apple Silicon chip suitable for higher-end Mac mini & Macbook Pro 13", Macbook Pro 16", both iMacs, iMac Pro and Mac mini are just the following

My point was that R&D is fundamentally unpredictable. That's also one of the reasons why Intel is in trouble now.

Maybe a choice you made doesn't work, but it may take months or years for you to realize it. Or maybe you made a mistake at some point, and you have to reevaluate everything done afterwards. Or maybe the project is delayed because figuring out the details takes longer than expected. And it may be delayed even further if you try adding more people, because now your engineers have to spend time training the new people instead of doing productive work. Even in a $2 trillion company, the success or failure of a project may be up to a single key person in some obscure niche specialty.

Until the product exists and is field-tested, it's never as simple as just doing X and Y.

 

[Serban55]

 

[Hexley]

Comparing what happened 15 years ago with what is happening now ..its strange
EVEN if the chips would be ready for next year, TSMC cannot deliver in 2021 chips for the mac entire line up and for iphones and ipads too
So, like other say, remove the mac pro from this wwdc, in 2021 we will have the 24” imac almost for sure and the 16” mbp and maybe also the 14” mbp
The rest, if there will be, will be just a little bonus
We heard the rumours that the custom gpu for the 16” apple is working..i bet fir the mac pro nothing is finished , after the chips will be finish there will be 4-6 months of internal testing and after that an presentation can happen
So at earliest we can see a presentation of mac pro in fall 2021 with an release date for customers in 2022

How strange it is to expect the losing US presidential candidate for the past dozen elections to give a concession speech within the week after the election?

Macs make up less than 8% of units of iPhones and iPads combined. The whole PC global market is equal to the global iPad and iPhone units shipped. An effective supply chain would schedule increased manufacturing capacity by a paltry 8% more chips output and not disrupt rollout schedule.

Intel is a less than $200 billion company. Apple is a more than $2 trillion company.

I would be very surprised that the 24" iMac would come out by WWDC 2021 or before 2022. It would take away from the fact that the iMac is now Apple Silicon.

A 16" with a physically separate GPU from the SoC... I'm 50/50 on that. It would make more sense to put an RTX 3090-equivalent GPU onto the SoC itself. This will naturally make it a larger SoC in terms of surface area.

The direction of chip makers is putting it on an SoC and modularization is only done for easy part swaps among multiple vendors.

I'm 50/50 because the only SoC that has a integrated GPU with the performance of discreet GPU like the GeForce 1050 Ti is the M1. If Apple were to continue towards this direction then I would not be surprised to see RTX 3090-like performance on an SoC that is physically larger and draws more power than the M1.

 

[Hexley]

A Pro version would be one that would have the next generation chip and the option to choose more than 16GB ram

And you are saying...when?

By "next generation chip" do you mean an "M2"? Or a chip that is suitable for a $1,099 Mac mini or a $1,799/$1,999 Macbook Pro 13"

If you mean the $1,099 Mac mini with four TB4/USB4 ports then between January-April 2021.

 

[Hexley]

My point was that R&D is fundamentally unpredictable. That's also one of the reasons why Intel is in trouble now.

Maybe a choice you made doesn't work, but it may take months or years for you to realize it. Or maybe you made a mistake at some point, and you have to reevaluate everything done afterwards. Or maybe the project is delayed because figuring out the details takes longer than expected. And it may be delayed even further if you try adding more people, because now your engineers have to spend time training the new people instead of doing productive work. Even in a $2 trillion company, the success or failure of a project may be up to a single key person in some obscure niche specialty.

Until the product exists and is field-tested, it's never as simple as just doing X and Y.

Intel's trouble has more to do with having more 80% x86 market share for decades and putting their money into "cheaper" marketing department rather than better R&D. That's the problem with monopolies. They're not incentivized to do better.

Intel used to be led by engineers but after they got Apple they shifted to be marketing-led.

Why do I say that? Because they're still stuck on a 10nm process while Apple's chips are on a5nm process.

Sony/Microsoft's video console's chips are on a 7nm and they're having stock availability issues. This could mean they're resource-limited, supply chain is 2nd rate or they're creating artificial buzz.

The next 200 or so days will be interesting to say the least.

I seriously suggest everyone to look at Apple as just not a company with a less than 8% PC global market share or just an iPhone seller.

Do a deep dive into their their financials and other metrics. You may be surprised that Apple purchasing and supply chain near perfection.

This is not from an Apple fanboi point of view buy a supply chain professional.

Apple has the cash to buy capacity and is such an important a client that anyone and everyone will bend over for them or else they'll move their business elsewhere.

This is what people either forget or refuse to see.

That's why I'm confident about WWDC 2021 will be when the last Macs will transition to Apple Silicon.

Macs with Xeon chips makes up about 1% of all Macs shipped.

 

[NJRonbo]

By "next generation chip" do you mean an "M2"? Or a chip that is suitable for a $1,099 Mac mini or a $1,799/$1,999 Macbook Pro 13"

If you mean the $1,099 Mac mini with four TB4/USB4 ports then between January-April 2021.

No, I don't care about the ports. I know others do.

What I am asking is when you expect to see the Mini refreshed with a new chip that will support more than 16GB ram?

I have a 16GB Mini on preorder right now. I need more memory than that so I am trying to gauge what the wait time will be

 

[Hexley]

No, I don't care about the ports. I know others do.

What I am asking is when you expect to see the Mini refreshed with a new chip that will support more than 16GB ram?

I have a 16GB Mini on preorder right now. I need more memory than that so I am trying to gauge what the wait time will be

The four TB4/USB4 port Mac mini will have a higher-end chip than the M1 and support for more than 16GB memory.

I expect it to be out between January-April 2021 as an early 2021 model.

My replying to you is not an endorsement of the "Mac mini Pro" name.

Apple's rollout of Apple Silicon chip centers around just 1 chip, the M1, that is applicable to ~80% of all Macs shipped.

This reduces complexities in manufacturing and improves throughput of supply chain as they have fewer SKUs to deal with.

A efficient and lean supply chain can and will allow for a less than 7 month transition from Intel to Apple chips.

Others who say otherwise so read up on Apple's supply chain and purchasing expertise. These are case studies in supply chain classes and business schools.

 

[Serban55]

How strange it is to expect the losing US presidential candidate for the past dozen elections to give a concession speech within the week after the election?

Macs make up less than 8% of units of iPhones and iPads combined. The whole PC global market is equal to the global iPad and iPhone units shipped. An effective supply chain would schedule increased manufacturing capacity by a paltry 8% more chips output and not disrupt rollout schedule.

Intel is a less than $200 billion company. Apple is a more than $2 trillion company.

I would be very surprised that the 24" iMac would come out by WWDC 2021 or before 2022. It would take away from the fact that the iMac is now Apple Silicon.

A 16" with a physically separate GPU from the SoC... I'm 50/50 on that. It would make more sense to put an RTX 3090-equivalent GPU onto the SoC itself. This will naturally make it a larger SoC in terms of surface area.

The direction of chip makers is putting it on an SoC and modularization is only done for easy part swaps among multiple vendors.

I'm 50/50 because the only SoC that has a integrated GPU with the performance of discreet GPU like the GeForce 1050 Ti is the M1. If Apple were to continue towards this direction then I would not be surprised to see RTX 3090-like performance on an SoC that is physically larger and draws more power than the M1.

It seems you dont understand, its ok. Live in the past. Remember TSMC is the MAIN manufacture for all of Apples chips now....and is not samsung to make 10 mil of arm chips per month....Apple main business is still iphones and services
And lets not get into the profit of Apple could possible throw if they release all the arm macs in the next 6 months, and thats bad for investors and as for business...Apple is not a charity company. In 2005 Steve run Apple and Steve was about the product and money was on second place....Tim Cook is a brilliant accounted and now it shows why Apple worth 2 trill $ , so for him is money first, products second. Again, to compare 2 different era is strange.
You will see that the 24" imac will come next year....and the arm mac pro will not come at 2021 WWDC
YOu can print screen this and we talk in about 7 months. But based on your replies its clear you have nothing else to do...you are all over the place
Again, we talk in 7 months

 

[NJRonbo]

The four TB4/USB4 port Mac mini will have a higher-end chip than the M1 and support for more than 16GB memory.

I expect it to be out between January-April 2021 as an early 2021 model.

Apple's rollout of Apple Silicon chip centers around just 1 chip, the M1, that is applicable to ~80% of all Macs shipped.

This reduces complexities in manufacturing and improves throughput of supply chain as they have fewer SKUs to deal with.

A efficient and lean supply chain can and will allow for a less than 7 month transition from Intel to Apple chips.

Others who say otherwise so read up on Apple's supply chain and purchasing expertise. These are case studies in supply chain classes and business schools.

So, basically, I should cancel my order for the Mini with 16GB as a new Mini with more memory support is just a few months away.

 

[Hexley]

So, basically, I should cancel my order for the Mini with 16GB as a new Mini with more memory support is just a few months away.

Within 5 months.

For me 16GB is not much of a bother. I'd prefer at least 32GB as that's what I've been using since Feb 2013 and 2017.

 

[Serban55]

So, basically, I should cancel my order for the Mini with 16GB as a new Mini with more memory support is just a few months away.

Yea...so Apple will lose money because you cancel your order and you will buy 1 potential mac ))
Maybe he is Tim Cook masked
Buy your mac and use it until whenever will happen the next arm mac will come out....time is money for us, and until then, use it ...dont cancel and wait for something is not for sure when it will come.