That's what I decided to go with which will be overkill really, but IMO it's kind of the sweet spot.
Honestly a 16"/1tb/16gb would likely be fine, or even 16"/1tb/32gb, but the +$200 gpu 24core upgrade is just so tempting.
I think upgrade time matters too.
IMO, if you upgrade every 2 or 3 years, I'd stay closer to a base model to save $ by avoiding less depreciation and using the $ for a future upgrade. Short upgrade cycles are very expensive with apple because (1) you take like a 30% hit right away, (2) you lose tax on every new purchase (6% or around $180), (3) you usually don't get major upgrades.
If you upgrade closer to 4,5+ years, I think it's probably worth just getting the upgrade because the cost/day for the upgrade gets much lower and will give some more longevity. (A $200 upgrade over 5 years is 11cents per day for the better igpu).
I think my current plan is 16"/1tb/32gb/24core gpu, and upgrade in ~ 5 years when wi-fi 7 is available and maybe OLED (OLED seems to be rumored and delayed every year). It's sort of nice to time upgrades to hardware features that will be long-lived. Unfortunately this model is lacking wi-fi 6e and av1 hardware decoding which are huge misses IMO. Next year's model may be the sweet spot for those that aren't in a rush, but I have a 10yr old macbook so will jump now. There's also some risk Apple will keep these on 2yr cycles rather than 1yr cycles. The other major decision point is how big of an upgrade the current model is compared to the history of devices, and this is a BIG one, so it's one of the better times to make a good sized purchase.