My employer won't buy anything that isn't ECC (science/engineering). And, Apple clearly believes that Xeon = Pro (Mac Pro, iMac Pro).
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Waiting for the 2020 MBP
- Thread starter Dulcimer
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My employer won't buy anything that isn't ECC (science/engineering). And, Apple clearly believes that Xeon = Pro (Mac Pro, iMac Pro).
All indications from the rumors point to keeping the same 15" enclosure with smaller bezels and a new keyboard. I doubt we'll see a redesign so soon.
That’s not true at all. So far, only the Digitimes article hints at a reuse of the same form factor, and even this is kind of disputed since digitimes doesn’t seem to have a reliable track record.
The other sources hint at a redesign, especially chuo, for what it’s worth...
Seconded.
There are plenty of random forum people who are also insisting that there is no re-design coming or it's not coming until 2020 or whatever but those are random forum people.
It is about as true as all of the other rumors circulating around. I have my doubts that a redesign will happen this year so I tend to lean towards those rumors.
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As random as you I suspect. It's as much wishful thinking as any other rumor.
There are analysts who look at supply chain data to make predictions, and there are people on forums who try to apply their own version of logic and reason based on a total outsider view. Not just an outsider of Apple, but usually an outsider of the industry.
To equate a respected analysts opinion to that of 15 year old Johnny, whose parents just bought him a $7k MacBook Pro so he could watch Netflix and play Fortnight, is just absurd. And I'm not saying that everyone on the forum is like Johnny, but very obviously some people are, and very obviously the absolute majority have no direct involvement with Apple or Apple's supply chain.
You think they're just designing it now? The design of this thing will have been locked in for months so they can get schematics out to their manufacturing partners, give specifications to and place orders with part suppliers, etc, etc. If it has a similar aesthetic to the Mac Pro and XDR display it will be because Ive oversaw them to look the way (or at least sat in on a couple of meetings while ideas were being thrashed out
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That was kind of tongue in cheek. A random person on a forum, complaining about random opinions on a forum from random people on a forum struck me as funny as hell.
Most of those respected people who predict what Apple is going to do are as wrong as they are right. They may have a better idea than you or I but it is still guesswork and a pretty low bar. They have their own motives for what they say.
Apple keeps things pretty close to the vest.
You think they're just designing it now? The design of this thing will have been locked in for months so they can get schematics out to their manufacturing partners, give specifications to and place orders with part suppliers, etc, etc. If it has a similar aesthetic to the Mac Pro and XDR display it will be because Ive oversaw them to look the way (or at least sat in on a couple of meetings while ideas were being thrashed out
I believe that Ive was gone, in every meaningful sense, years ago.
Imagine being a superstar ID guy (recruited by Apple!) forced to sit for days on end while your dick of a boss is totally absent. Then you are asked to 'make things thinner', while he globe-trots scooping up awards for the old days, while working on ego bs like the Ive Lecia, etc. You'd be crazy mad and seriously pent up!
Though Apple took its sweet time firing Ive (Cook was probs scared to do this), I'd bet anything that people were told to move ahead without him for a long time while some sort of face saving exit was planned (starting his own firm, etc.).
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No, I'm more accurate than all of them.
I agree with most of what you wrote. Ming is very divisive. There are plenty of folks who swear by him and plenty of folks who will tell you that he is ALWAYS wrong. Obviously he gets some stuff right and some stuff wrong. And sometimes he'll get stuff wrong because supply chain movements are indicative but plans change. Look at the Air Power fiasco.
One of these days when I have a spare few hours I keep meaning to go and look back through his historical predictions and see how close to reality they were.
All the same, I think he's more accurate than Johnny, or even me.
It does. And yet most of the analysts lend towards a redesign. We’re about 2 months from the rumored release date, which is very likely since the appropriate model numbers have already been registered within a reasonable time frame. Whenever we had such a big amount of analysts opinions coming in shortly before the release, these rumors turned out to be true. I remember when the iPad Pro was rumored to be released in November. Half of the people in the forums would say it wouldn’t happen this year anymore, it was outside of Apples usual behavior. And yet it happened.
Apple has to move on, times change. The Tick Tock model of iPhones is crumbling, and the release cycles have to be overthought as well. Apple realized, that they have to adapt their strategy on the go if they want to succeed.
I think Apple will lead these new MBP as part of their new “Pro Pro” line (iMac Pro, Mac Pro, XDR, ...), separate from the other product cycles. Most likely the rest of the redesigns will follow next year, to avoid upsetting their customer base with overly rapid releases.
When I look at this forum I suspect what’s going on here is that half of the community is having a buyers remorse and the other half including me is in need of a new notebook, therefore gravitating more towards the redesign rumors. So basically each of us just wants his wishes to become the reality. Anyways, we’re gonna see soon more!
That happens every year. And every year half the people are right and the other half is wrong. It all depends on what your current needs and desires are right now. There have been big bold predictions in the past that went no where. I don't place a lot of faith in the analysts.
I don't have a lot of faith that Apple will make the right move. If they do have a redesign for the 16", I am hoping they don't make decisions that will most likely make a small niche happy and alienate a larger crowd (see the Mac Pro).
I don't need an upgrade right now so I'll be able to wait and see.
I figured there'd be some chatter here after Intel released info about their new processors! So who else is disappointed to get final confirmation that there's no 35 or 45W parts in the Ice Lake pipeline? I mean, we kind of knew already, but still...
The Macbook Air is set to have a great year I guess, especially since it relies on Intel's graphics. The 28W part could go in the Macbook 13" too, but... the clock speed is oddly low. Obviously the new architecture makes it more complicated than that, but .5 GHz slower than the best-available current option leaves me skeptical that the new Ice Lake part is actually faster than the i7-8569U Coffee Lake part you can buy right now.
The 15" is still screwed. I don't know what goes into a redesigned 15 that's thinner than the current design... there's not a lot of ways to eke out more performance for less power. All options seem farfetched. A custom ARM processor would create software havoc, and I'm not really sure Apple can scale the A# up that high. We'd probably know if a custom AMD APU existed by now. And I'm not sure a 1650 GTX Max-Q actually draws less power than Apple's semicustom AMD solution.
The Macbook Air is set to have a great year I guess, especially since it relies on Intel's graphics. The 28W part could go in the Macbook 13" too, but... the clock speed is oddly low. Obviously the new architecture makes it more complicated than that, but .5 GHz slower than the best-available current option leaves me skeptical that the new Ice Lake part is actually faster than the i7-8569U Coffee Lake part you can buy right now.
The 15" is still screwed. I don't know what goes into a redesigned 15 that's thinner than the current design... there's not a lot of ways to eke out more performance for less power. All options seem farfetched. A custom ARM processor would create software havoc, and I'm not really sure Apple can scale the A# up that high. We'd probably know if a custom AMD APU existed by now. And I'm not sure a 1650 GTX Max-Q actually draws less power than Apple's semicustom AMD solution.
The keyboard, the screen and the redesign almost have to come together, whenever they come...
Yes, it would be possible to make minimal changes to get a keyboard 1mm or so thicker into the existing MBP case (they'd have to deepen the keyboard well, which might have knock-on effects on everything below it - or they could deepen the well while also making the whole lower case 1 or 2 mm thicker, to avoid the effects on things below). It would also be possible to get a slightly larger screen in by modifying only the top case, by reducing the bezels - but you can't get all the way to 16.4" that way. Remember that Dell's InfinityEdge screens (about as close to truly bezel-free as laptops get) actually have about half the bezel of the present MBP.
If we were looking at one of these two changes (especially just squeezing in a keyboard, but also if the screen was growing a tiny bit), and it were mid-cycle, I'd say "sure, that could be a mid-cycle update - not really a new design". First of all, we're past year three of a generally four-year cycle. Second, we are hearing about a specific screen size that won't fit by simply massaging the top case. If we're looking at a 16.4" screen, that's a notable stretch to the outside dimensions.
If Apple followed expected cycles, a redesign would hit in spring/summer 2020 - but pushing it forward could make sense... The processor update for 2020 (in the big MBP - little one could get Ice Lake with a huge graphics bump) is going to be underwhelming. Unless Intel squeezes 10 or 12 cores into a mobile part, we're looking at 14nm+++++++, YetAnotherLake, 8 cores, probably with a +100 MHz base clock speed and maybe +200MHz single-core turbo. It doesn't matter, in other words.
What if Navi's ready this fall, and Apple knows it? Would they rather push the redesign forward, get a replacement for the butterfly keyboard out there and get some new GPUs out? The other option is to sit on the redesign for another 8 months (losing an opportunity to improve holiday-season Mac sales), simply to pick up a meh processor upgrade in addition.
My bet (and this is only a guess) is that we see a redesign in September or October, not at the iPhone event, and that it comes only in high-end configurations at first. It will replace the 15", but that will happen at the regularly scheduled update in May or so. The first models we see will be something like this:
Either one CPU option (9980 HK - today's CTO CPU) or two options with the higher one CTO, which could be either 9880H (today's standard 8-core) and 9980HK OR 9980HK and the Xeon version (assuming the Xeon can take the same RAM - Apple's not going to get into two different motherboards).
If there's only the 9980HK, they need to know that the second CPU in the 2020 lineup will be faster than the 9980HK, if only by a tiny bit. They don't want to have the high standard CPU actually go down in performance when the 2020s come out (the 9980HK equivalent will probably be CTO in 2020 as they go to the usual lineup of low, high, CTO).
New GPUs, at least as options. I'm guessing that, in keeping with the high-end nature of the initial offering, the minimum GPU should be either a Vega 16 or a Vega 20 (assuming it isn't all new options). There should be at least one option that outperforms the Vega 20 - whether it's a newer Navi GPU at the same level, a higher-end Vega GPU or one that is both higher-end and Navi.
Some bump to base configuration - will it start at 16 GB of RAM, but with a 1 TB drive, or will it start with 32 GB of RAM, but only a 512 GB drive, or will it get both bumps. The lower-end configuration that should come out in May won't get the bumped base configuration - but it'll be much cheaper.
My suspicion is that this is a high-end halo model for now, but replaces the 15" at the next regularly scheduled update. That's how the Retina was rolled out.
Yes, it would be possible to make minimal changes to get a keyboard 1mm or so thicker into the existing MBP case (they'd have to deepen the keyboard well, which might have knock-on effects on everything below it - or they could deepen the well while also making the whole lower case 1 or 2 mm thicker, to avoid the effects on things below). It would also be possible to get a slightly larger screen in by modifying only the top case, by reducing the bezels - but you can't get all the way to 16.4" that way. Remember that Dell's InfinityEdge screens (about as close to truly bezel-free as laptops get) actually have about half the bezel of the present MBP.
If we were looking at one of these two changes (especially just squeezing in a keyboard, but also if the screen was growing a tiny bit), and it were mid-cycle, I'd say "sure, that could be a mid-cycle update - not really a new design". First of all, we're past year three of a generally four-year cycle. Second, we are hearing about a specific screen size that won't fit by simply massaging the top case. If we're looking at a 16.4" screen, that's a notable stretch to the outside dimensions.
If Apple followed expected cycles, a redesign would hit in spring/summer 2020 - but pushing it forward could make sense... The processor update for 2020 (in the big MBP - little one could get Ice Lake with a huge graphics bump) is going to be underwhelming. Unless Intel squeezes 10 or 12 cores into a mobile part, we're looking at 14nm+++++++, YetAnotherLake, 8 cores, probably with a +100 MHz base clock speed and maybe +200MHz single-core turbo. It doesn't matter, in other words.
What if Navi's ready this fall, and Apple knows it? Would they rather push the redesign forward, get a replacement for the butterfly keyboard out there and get some new GPUs out? The other option is to sit on the redesign for another 8 months (losing an opportunity to improve holiday-season Mac sales), simply to pick up a meh processor upgrade in addition.
My bet (and this is only a guess) is that we see a redesign in September or October, not at the iPhone event, and that it comes only in high-end configurations at first. It will replace the 15", but that will happen at the regularly scheduled update in May or so. The first models we see will be something like this:
Either one CPU option (9980 HK - today's CTO CPU) or two options with the higher one CTO, which could be either 9880H (today's standard 8-core) and 9980HK OR 9980HK and the Xeon version (assuming the Xeon can take the same RAM - Apple's not going to get into two different motherboards).
If there's only the 9980HK, they need to know that the second CPU in the 2020 lineup will be faster than the 9980HK, if only by a tiny bit. They don't want to have the high standard CPU actually go down in performance when the 2020s come out (the 9980HK equivalent will probably be CTO in 2020 as they go to the usual lineup of low, high, CTO).
New GPUs, at least as options. I'm guessing that, in keeping with the high-end nature of the initial offering, the minimum GPU should be either a Vega 16 or a Vega 20 (assuming it isn't all new options). There should be at least one option that outperforms the Vega 20 - whether it's a newer Navi GPU at the same level, a higher-end Vega GPU or one that is both higher-end and Navi.
Some bump to base configuration - will it start at 16 GB of RAM, but with a 1 TB drive, or will it start with 32 GB of RAM, but only a 512 GB drive, or will it get both bumps. The lower-end configuration that should come out in May won't get the bumped base configuration - but it'll be much cheaper.
My suspicion is that this is a high-end halo model for now, but replaces the 15" at the next regularly scheduled update. That's how the Retina was rolled out.
For 13” buyers it looks like things are coming together. 28w with a good strong wifi6 deployment would be great. Even if the base clock is 1.4 or whatever if it has the thermal headroom like the current 1.4 it could be a great performer.
What I’m actually most excited about is the user experience aspect of this redesign. Will this be purely a boost in stats all across the board (bigger screen, faster graphics card, more working memory, more reliable keyboard), or will there be actually changes in how you operate the device, like most likely the feel of the keyboard.
I’m particularly looking at you, Touchbar. I would like Apple to address the elephant in the room and either let it die, or evolve it. I personally always loved the idea of the touchbar. After a short affair with a Surface Book I finally realized, why Touchscreens are not a good idea on a laptop, even in a hybrid configuration. The Touchbar seemed to address this problem, but it was just lackluster. Not useful enough, to justify looking further down. But at the same time replacing essential keyboard functionality, and therefore not ignorable.
While I do think many of Touchbars problems come from a lack of commitment on the software side (that BTT shows how much potential Apple is still missing out on, even though I’m not a fan of it), I do think that a lot of its failure is accounted to hardware issues. Namely, the lack of haptic feedback, too small of a size to pack in more complex controls and finally the lack of an appropriate implementation on the Magic Keyboard.
So with this next release, I’d like Apple to stop pretending as if the TouchBar is good as is and commit to either way: Kill it or fix it.
Any kind of other surprises would be welcome as well. I remember at some point there was the talk about a keyboard with integrated mini displays, but I guess that’s not happening.
I’m particularly looking at you, Touchbar. I would like Apple to address the elephant in the room and either let it die, or evolve it. I personally always loved the idea of the touchbar. After a short affair with a Surface Book I finally realized, why Touchscreens are not a good idea on a laptop, even in a hybrid configuration. The Touchbar seemed to address this problem, but it was just lackluster. Not useful enough, to justify looking further down. But at the same time replacing essential keyboard functionality, and therefore not ignorable.
While I do think many of Touchbars problems come from a lack of commitment on the software side (that BTT shows how much potential Apple is still missing out on, even though I’m not a fan of it), I do think that a lot of its failure is accounted to hardware issues. Namely, the lack of haptic feedback, too small of a size to pack in more complex controls and finally the lack of an appropriate implementation on the Magic Keyboard.
So with this next release, I’d like Apple to stop pretending as if the TouchBar is good as is and commit to either way: Kill it or fix it.
Any kind of other surprises would be welcome as well. I remember at some point there was the talk about a keyboard with integrated mini displays, but I guess that’s not happening.
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Some of these configurations are just the same parts currently in the 15". The current 15" does not really have much room to give in terms of thermal requirements and the new 15" will be smaller.
The only one of these configurations that I could see working is Navi, but the current low-end Navi part draws 75W. So this would be a completely custom part for Apple. But now we are back in "why doesn't Apple just get a custom APU from AMD" territory. I would wait for 2020 and do exactly that.
Why shouldn't we have ECC everywhere? It's great that Apple is using IPS (or OLED) everywhere and completely got rid of TN. Now they could bring ECC everywhere, because doing it that way would also bring the cost down. Seeing that you don't care for ECC you probably don't mind that APFS only checksums the meta-data and not your data. But other people value their stuff, all of it.
Im not that technically versatile to be honest. I just read up a little bit on this topic and the bottom line was, that considering how rare working memory errors are, ECC only pays off for long/critical tasks or server uptime. I’m working every day on my Macbook since years and I never had any corrupted documents. Just a lot of failed rendertasks, which i always thought are due to bugs in the software, but maybe those could’ve been avoided with ECC... no idea.
It just struck me weird, considering how rare those incidents supposedly are, why anybody would do anything that data critical on his notebook, since that’s what usually workstations are for. I was under the impression, that many - if not most - professionals don’t need ECC for their everyday workflow, and therefore the premium pricetag is kind of a waste. But maybe my impression is wrong, I’m open to being corrected.
As for screen estate, every inch is worth gold to me. So that's why I consider myself a potential user of this machine.
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Everyone in engineering/sciences/etc. needs ECC, and lots of firms exclusively use laptops. As I mentioned above, my employer requires it (hence my excitement to finally get rid of my HP for a 16" Xeon MBP)!
I think we may be talking about two different things. You may be talking about the rumored new model 16" computer, and I'm talking about the refresh to the 15" MBP. Kuo has these listed as separate devices.
If you are talking about the 15", "the refresh will be smaller" is speculation on my part but speculation I'd bet on with 9:1 odds. It doesn't make sense for Apple to use a larger chassis for the 15" as part of a redesign that's supposed to carry them through 2024. It especially doesn't make sense for them to do this if they're also releasing a 16" pro machine that already targets the "I wouldn't mind a slightly bigger machine if ____" crowd.
I’ve hear that rumor elsewhere. It makes sense and if history has told us anything, Apple likes to experiment in different machines before they adopt. In this case, they are taking a page out of the iPad lineup, keeping the same form factor and decreasing the bezzels. It’s not that hard to figure out.