It would seem really strange to have both a refreshed 15" and a 16" MBP - that would seem to indicate a broadening of the MBP line from two models to three, with the third model added at the top end.
While that will be true on a temporary basis if they add the 16.4" without either refreshing or discontinuing the 15", they'd go back down to two current models in May when they added lower-end 16.4" options and discontinued the 15". They could also keep one unrefreshed 15" model at the bottom of the pile for another year - but that doesn't really count as a current model.
A serious refresh of the 15", on the other hand, indicates the intent to keep it (and a 3 model MBP line) for another full cycle. If they were to do that, I'd expect them to go to 17" for the top model, or to find some other way to differentiate it - computers that will be known as the 15" MBP and 16" MBP are too close (regardless of the actual distance between screen sizes, the decimal inches will be dropped, unless something like a 16.8" screen gets rounded to 17").
If Apple adds one notebook to what they currently manufacture (other than a 16" that's going to replace the 15", so not really an addition), a top-end third MBP is only the third (or possibly fourth) most likely machine I could see.
1.) An ultra,ultra light machine in the MacBook niche (can they go under 2 lbs, and by how much?) - will they do this this fall, using a new Ice Lake CPU, or will they wait and throw an ARM chip in it in a year or two?
2.) A super thin machine with a larger screen (15" MacBook? 15" MBA?) Right now, a big screen from Apple means a mobile workstation level H-series CPU and discrete graphics. There's a market that wants the screen, but not the power, and the upper end of Ice Lake lets them serve it - the integrated GPU is enough to run the big screen for many purposes. I suspect they can get a 15" laptop under 3 lbs - with a 28W CPU and no DGPU, they will save quite a bit of battery and cooling weight.
3.) A low-end student notebook - they haven't been consistent about having something at $999 or below - sometimes they have one and sometimes they don't (right now, they start at $1099 for the lowest-end Air).
4.) A third MBP permanently stationed above the 15" seems less likely than any of the above, or maybe as likely as the student notebook? I strongly believe the 16" is coming, but it's going to gradually replace the 15", which will wither without upgrades.
Note: a 15" MacBook or MBA allows the 16" MBP to start at a higher price, even after the 15" goes away. The role of the $2299 MBP 15" will be filled by the ($1999?) big and thin machine, letting the 16" start at $2499 or $2599.
complete speculation, but my best guess on pricing is:
Fall 2019 16" MBP - $3299 base price, but with a 16/1TB base configuration.
Spring 2020 16" MBP - $2599 model introduced, slower processor, 16/512 base - 15" discontinued. $3299 model goes to $3099, loses some little perk.
Fall 2019 or Spring 2020 15" MBA (or whatever they call it) - 28W Ice Lake - 16/256 base for $1999
Fall 2019 12" (or so) MB - slow Ice Lake - starts at $1499, $1649 for a cellular variant - 8/256 base
While that will be true on a temporary basis if they add the 16.4" without either refreshing or discontinuing the 15", they'd go back down to two current models in May when they added lower-end 16.4" options and discontinued the 15". They could also keep one unrefreshed 15" model at the bottom of the pile for another year - but that doesn't really count as a current model.
A serious refresh of the 15", on the other hand, indicates the intent to keep it (and a 3 model MBP line) for another full cycle. If they were to do that, I'd expect them to go to 17" for the top model, or to find some other way to differentiate it - computers that will be known as the 15" MBP and 16" MBP are too close (regardless of the actual distance between screen sizes, the decimal inches will be dropped, unless something like a 16.8" screen gets rounded to 17").
If Apple adds one notebook to what they currently manufacture (other than a 16" that's going to replace the 15", so not really an addition), a top-end third MBP is only the third (or possibly fourth) most likely machine I could see.
1.) An ultra,ultra light machine in the MacBook niche (can they go under 2 lbs, and by how much?) - will they do this this fall, using a new Ice Lake CPU, or will they wait and throw an ARM chip in it in a year or two?
2.) A super thin machine with a larger screen (15" MacBook? 15" MBA?) Right now, a big screen from Apple means a mobile workstation level H-series CPU and discrete graphics. There's a market that wants the screen, but not the power, and the upper end of Ice Lake lets them serve it - the integrated GPU is enough to run the big screen for many purposes. I suspect they can get a 15" laptop under 3 lbs - with a 28W CPU and no DGPU, they will save quite a bit of battery and cooling weight.
3.) A low-end student notebook - they haven't been consistent about having something at $999 or below - sometimes they have one and sometimes they don't (right now, they start at $1099 for the lowest-end Air).
4.) A third MBP permanently stationed above the 15" seems less likely than any of the above, or maybe as likely as the student notebook? I strongly believe the 16" is coming, but it's going to gradually replace the 15", which will wither without upgrades.
Note: a 15" MacBook or MBA allows the 16" MBP to start at a higher price, even after the 15" goes away. The role of the $2299 MBP 15" will be filled by the ($1999?) big and thin machine, letting the 16" start at $2499 or $2599.
complete speculation, but my best guess on pricing is:
Fall 2019 16" MBP - $3299 base price, but with a 16/1TB base configuration.
Spring 2020 16" MBP - $2599 model introduced, slower processor, 16/512 base - 15" discontinued. $3299 model goes to $3099, loses some little perk.
Fall 2019 or Spring 2020 15" MBA (or whatever they call it) - 28W Ice Lake - 16/256 base for $1999
Fall 2019 12" (or so) MB - slow Ice Lake - starts at $1499, $1649 for a cellular variant - 8/256 base
