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Waiting for the 2020 MBP
- Thread starter Dulcimer
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- 2020 macbook pro
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If the 16 is still on 4+ year old 14nm skylake then I'm still grouping the new 16 in the 2016-19 range. Ive been waiting since 2012, def not upgrade to 5 year old tech and not touching a MBP until real 10nm CPUs are in it.
So far that unfortunately seems to be the most likely scenario. Personally I’m 100% certain it’s gonna be skylake again. Since 10nm seems to be far off however, that’s not of relevance to me. My concerns with the MacBook are not related to the choice of cpu.
In your case however it might pay off to wait another 1-2 years
There are no 10nm H class chips on the roadmap let alone around the corner for next year.
Probably the best case scenario is to wait 6-7 years for a model that is really good.
The next 45W chip will be Comet Lake (YetAnotherLake) at 14+++, and we may or may not also see Rocket Lake at !4++++. Rocket Lake is official on desktop roadmaps, unconfirmed on 45W mobile (but Comet Lake appearing before anything 10nm IS confirmed).
The best we can hope for in the near term is that Comet Lake-H turns up this fall, ahead of the new 16" release, so we get one minor CPU refresh out of the way. It'll be on the market for a year or so, so the earliest possible 10nm release is fall 2020 if Rocket Lake isn't inserted. Perhaps more likely is that it shows up in the spring of 2020 (when H series CPUs often do), then its successor might be spring 2021 (and might be 10nm, or it might be Rocket Lake).
At the earliest, we're looking at a 10nm 45w CPU in fall 2020, and, at the latest, we should see one by spring 2022...
The best we can hope for in the near term is that Comet Lake-H turns up this fall, ahead of the new 16" release, so we get one minor CPU refresh out of the way. It'll be on the market for a year or so, so the earliest possible 10nm release is fall 2020 if Rocket Lake isn't inserted. Perhaps more likely is that it shows up in the spring of 2020 (when H series CPUs often do), then its successor might be spring 2021 (and might be 10nm, or it might be Rocket Lake).
At the earliest, we're looking at a 10nm 45w CPU in fall 2020, and, at the latest, we should see one by spring 2022...
They said on the news tonight that apple is announcing the new laptops next week? Is that true? Thought Sept 10th or so?
If that's true it would be another minor update without an announcement. I highly doubt that though, since TV? news are usually the last in the information chain and we haven't heard this from any other source, even now.
Yeah this was in Chicago, they said apple is exited to announce new iPads, and new MBPs including a new 16” model late next week.......hmmmmm
Interesting... I mean it's a shame, since I would've preferred a redesign instead of another rehash of the existing one. But at the same time I'm in dire need of a new MacBook so yeah...
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I would be replacing a 2015, yours would be near 10 years old by then, you would be long over due and upgrade. You should be looking at either the late 2019, mid 2020 or late 2020 model.
So these are the same questions I have and what I’m waiting for. All I’m interested in is the 13” MacBook Pro and I don’t want to make a purchase now until they come with the scissor keyboard since that will be the new norm for the keyboards. I know all that’s stated for now is the new 16” inch MacBook Pro, so I guess I’m still on the waiting list until the 13” gets the update and it does look like 2020 for that. I just hope the 2020 schedule isn’t all the way into the fall season. #waitingpatiently
I bought a maxed out 13” but decided I wanted the bigger screen. I have scheduled a pickup for the 29th so I am going to wait out for the 16”. Hoping it’s announced on the 10th as I don’t want to be workouts laptop for too long!
Late 2019 wont be promising enough since all they are going to offer is "fixed" butterfly keyboard. Mid 2020 should be it .
Would be very cool. But a big surprise. iirc the compute units in Navi are about twice the size of the Vega ones (that is, I think Navi has twice as many workgroups per CU)... A GPU for the MBP 16" would need 10 Navi compute units to be competitive performance-wise but it would also have to burn at most 35 watts. The Navi 14 has 24 CUs and it probably way too big and power hungry. Adapting it would be a considerable undertaking, and I'm inclined to think that if a part like this existed ahead of a September MBP launch we would already know something about it.
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They are not twice the size, they are twice if case of transistors count but navi is 7nm and Radeon Pro Vega 20(20cu's) is 14nm
I'd love to see it happen. The comparison on notebookcheck is putting the Navi 14 between the 1650 - 1660 in terms of performance. The 1650 is a 75W part, and I'm willing to bet Navi 14's power consumption will be higher than that. I'm not sure AMD could scale this down. nVidia has, but they are generally much better at power efficiency.
It would seem strange that Apple would release two case modifications to the same machine within a year of each other. A new keyboard is going to require at least some degree of modification to the case tooling. It could be very modest if the new keyboard is only slightly thicker than the old, or it could be significant if it was a very different keyboard technology.
If we were a couple of years from the release of a redesigned MacBook Pro, I could easily see Apple releasing a machine with a slight case retooling, to get away from the butterfly keyboard as quickly as possible - but we are less than a year from when we would expect a regularly scheduled redesign. It makes far more sense to push the redesign (16" screen, possibly other modifications - cooling, etc.) forward by those few months, in order to release the keyboard when it's ready than it does to release two machines that require expensive retooling months apart. The third option would be to hold the keyboard back, and release everything together in 2020.
Ordinarily, I'd think a spring 2020 release the most likely - but there are a couple of things that lead me to believe it's probably actually coming this fall. Most important is all the pundits who seem to have sources in this direction. Second is the next 45w processor Intel's going to release - it's not 10nm Ice Lake, but 14nm Comet Lake (a minor upgrade to the existing chips). There may even be another 14nm++++++++++ step stuck in there after Comet Lake - Rocket Lake, which will be coming to a desktop near you, and we aren't sure about 45w mobile. This places 10nm 45w mobile in the "still a long way away" category - spring 2021 is the soonest we might expect it (although there is an off chance that Comet Lake might appear this fall, followed by a 10nm 45w chip in fall 2020).
The third piece of evidence that Apple knows, but the public doesn't, is Intel's and AMD's expected delivery dates for CPUs and GPUs, respectively. If Apple knows that mobile Navi is either very close (and will make it into a Fall 2019 Mac) or far enough away that a Spring 2020 Mac won't have it, that could encourage them to go ahead and release this fall. Similarly, Apple knows the specs and release date of Comet Lake-H . If they know it's very close, they could know that a fall release could include it. If they know it's a minor update, they would know not to hold up the keyboard, the screen and possibly Navi waiting for it. It's probably not a major update coming in the spiring, because that's the one thing that would cause them to wait. It doesn't matter that we uninformed civilians don't have access to that info, Apple does - and they are acting on it.
If we were a couple of years from the release of a redesigned MacBook Pro, I could easily see Apple releasing a machine with a slight case retooling, to get away from the butterfly keyboard as quickly as possible - but we are less than a year from when we would expect a regularly scheduled redesign. It makes far more sense to push the redesign (16" screen, possibly other modifications - cooling, etc.) forward by those few months, in order to release the keyboard when it's ready than it does to release two machines that require expensive retooling months apart. The third option would be to hold the keyboard back, and release everything together in 2020.
Ordinarily, I'd think a spring 2020 release the most likely - but there are a couple of things that lead me to believe it's probably actually coming this fall. Most important is all the pundits who seem to have sources in this direction. Second is the next 45w processor Intel's going to release - it's not 10nm Ice Lake, but 14nm Comet Lake (a minor upgrade to the existing chips). There may even be another 14nm++++++++++ step stuck in there after Comet Lake - Rocket Lake, which will be coming to a desktop near you, and we aren't sure about 45w mobile. This places 10nm 45w mobile in the "still a long way away" category - spring 2021 is the soonest we might expect it (although there is an off chance that Comet Lake might appear this fall, followed by a 10nm 45w chip in fall 2020).
The third piece of evidence that Apple knows, but the public doesn't, is Intel's and AMD's expected delivery dates for CPUs and GPUs, respectively. If Apple knows that mobile Navi is either very close (and will make it into a Fall 2019 Mac) or far enough away that a Spring 2020 Mac won't have it, that could encourage them to go ahead and release this fall. Similarly, Apple knows the specs and release date of Comet Lake-H . If they know it's very close, they could know that a fall release could include it. If they know it's a minor update, they would know not to hold up the keyboard, the screen and possibly Navi waiting for it. It's probably not a major update coming in the spiring, because that's the one thing that would cause them to wait. It doesn't matter that we uninformed civilians don't have access to that info, Apple does - and they are acting on it.
I'm currently on a 2018 13" MBP and had to use my 2011 MBA yesterday to get some old files off. I don't hate the MBP keyboard at all, but man did the other keyboard just feel so much better.
Are we conjecturing that the rumored scissor switch keyboard would feel more like keyboards of the past, or is it just to add reliability to the MBP? My laptop is still under AppleCare so I'd absolutely love to sell it on ebay or something and try to upgrade even after just a short time just for a better keyboard with more travel.
Are we conjecturing that the rumored scissor switch keyboard would feel more like keyboards of the past, or is it just to add reliability to the MBP? My laptop is still under AppleCare so I'd absolutely love to sell it on ebay or something and try to upgrade even after just a short time just for a better keyboard with more travel.
Everyone commenting on these sort of threads, especially the 2020 MBP threads, seems to be completely oblivious that Apple has entered a stage of transition, affecting their entire product line, due to the firing (I mean, ‘departure’) or Jony Ive - and the company is undergoing an extreme (as extreme as Apple is capable, at least, case of “out with the old, in with the new”, making both a break from the Jony Ive design era, but at the same time fixing all the flaws and significant mistakes (and dead-end streets) that Jony’s designs have led to.
This has started, most visibly, with the Mac Pro and has slipped in with the new iPad Pro designs (with more angular edges), as well as flown under the radar with the redesign and refocusing of the Apple Watch - all of which were positive developments.
Apple made a clean break in the Pro market with the Mac Pro redesign (which was well-received), and usually introduces new directions with the MacBook Pro designs - so it stands to reason that we will be seeing a new MacBook Pro design before the end of the year (maybe even September 10th), to herald this break and new product direction (dumping all existing MBP products via the refurb store).
These design directions will find their way into the rest of the Mac and iOS product line over the subsequent 12 months, I suspect - hopefully replacing the brain-dead Mac mini, and updating the iMac design (maybe with the ridiculous bubble-hole design, albeit the iMac Pro can benefit from better ventilation).
What we hope to see these other products evolve to would be a matter of a different discussion.
My 2013 rMBP is working as good as when I bought it. With 16 GB and 1 TB SSD. Does everything it needs to do for me. If it’s not broken why change it. I never change a running system.