Why the M2 MacBook Air won't come at WWDC

[NewUsername]

I think anyone objectively thinking about it would have realized a while ago there won't be a MacBook Air at WWDC.

The stock is a very reliable indicator. I previously predicted changes to the iMac 27-inch and MBP 16-inch just by looking at the shipping lead times. In all cases, I've been 100% accurate.

The launch of MBA would create a lot of noise - leaks from certification agencies like UL Demko and CCC regarding battery, EEC filings, 13.6-inch display resolution info in macOS, etc. None of this is happening.

While launching consumer products at WWDC is a bit unusual, it would also make sense for Apple to do it this time. The MacBook Air hasn’t been updated since November 2020 and selling a 2020 laptop in the back-to-school season is a bit problematic. EEC filings are hardly relevant anymore since Apple doesn’t sell in Russia anymore and the market of the other countries is tiny. And while shipping delays don’t mean so much because they might be caused by the lockdowns in China, it’s still significant that on Apple.com here in Europe the shipping delay is 6-8 weeks.

But of course, Apple might launch new MacBooks in July without an event or simply wait until October.

 

[MayaUser]

While launching consumer products at WWDC is a bit unusual, it would also make sense for Apple to do it this time. The MacBook Air hasn’t been updated since November 2020 and selling a 2020 laptop in the back-to-school season is a bit problematic. EEC filings are hardly relevant anymore since Apple doesn’t sell in Russia anymore and the market of the other countries is tiny. And while shipping delays don’t mean so much because they might be caused by the lockdowns in China, it’s still significant that on Apple.com here in Europe the shipping delay is 6-8 weeks.

But of course, Apple might launch new MacBooks in July without an event or simply wait until October.

Agree with all but not on your last point...if the next Macbook air is really a redesign with an M2, apple would want to show this into an event...they shown us the iphone SE in the spring event...
I think this would be more of a show into an event than the rumoured normal iphone 14 with the same design, same SoC etc..i mean that should not even be presented in September, only the pro model
Basically the next iphone 14 will be less of an upgrade than the latest SE was...my god )) (ofc if the rumours come true)

 

[darngooddesign]

The 'Air" name is very popular for the Mac

I would argue that the computer is more popular than the name.

 

[darngooddesign]

Basically the next iphone 14 will be less of an upgrade than the latest SE was...my god )) (ofc if the rumours come true)

The 14s will get the same kind of upgrades as the SE, new chip in an old case, more RAM, and no physical camera upgrade, while the 14 Pros will be more of an upgrade with a new FaceID cutout, always on screen, and better cameras. But the 14s will not be less of an upgrade than the SE3.

 

[UBS28]

The reason why there will be no M2 MacBook Air, is that Apple cannot produce them with their current production issues they have at the moment.

The M2 chip will come when TSMC switches to 3nm next year most likely.

 

[JPack]

While launching consumer products at WWDC is a bit unusual, it would also make sense for Apple to do it this time. The MacBook Air hasn’t been updated since November 2020 and selling a 2020 laptop in the back-to-school season is a bit problematic. EEC filings are hardly relevant anymore since Apple doesn’t sell in Russia anymore and the market of the other countries is tiny. And while shipping delays don’t mean so much because they might be caused by the lockdowns in China, it’s still significant that on Apple.com here in Europe the shipping delay is 6-8 weeks.

But of course, Apple might launch new MacBooks in July without an event or simply wait until October.

It’s actually the opposite that suggests no new model at WWDC - there is no delay for shipping a BTO MacBook Air. The lead time for any custom configuration coming from Quanta Shanghai is only 2-3 weeks to the U.S.

This strongly suggests nothing coming at WWDC. Under normal circumstances for NPI, the assembly line will have converted to making and stocking the new product which results in delays of 1-2 months on the website for the existing BTO product. We would also see stock out situations at Apple Stores. We’ve seen this before with new products such as 16-inch MBP. None of this is happening, hence my conclusion.

 

[surf4peace]

I have been trying to avoid leaks and rumors a lot, but I keep accidentally seeing more than ever
M2 MacBook Air at WWDC!!!

Reason 1: Not out of stock​

Now one of the first reasons people said were, the M1 MacBook Air is out of stock.
I quickly went to Apple, and:
View attachment 2013077
View attachment 2013083
All the Apple Stores in Colorado has the base model.

Now what about the one with 8 core GPU? Could that be out of stock?
View attachment 2013078
View attachment 2013084
Only 1 Apple Store in Colorado (The 2nd farthest one from me) in Colorado had it.

So that means nothing.

What about delivery dates?
View attachment 2013080
Better than what we had...

And if I were to make the higher model go higher:
View attachment 2013082
It remains the same.

In conclusion, I guess the leakers dont have it in stock in their area, and I expect them to all be in stock again June 28.

Reason 2: Colors mean nothing.​

One of the marketing for WWDC looked like this:
View attachment 2013085
After people saw this for the first time, they immediately said "M2 MacBook Air", since it is rumored to receive a redesign and get some new colors.

I thought the March 8th event would have a colorful M2 MacBook Air, because of (You guessed it), colors!
Here is what the March 8th marketing was:
View attachment 2013086
I doubt the colors mean anything, and it is just Apple trying to be fun with their logo. It could be the same this year with Apple trying to be fun with their Memojis.

Reason 3: People would forget it was revealed before getting it​

I know a few people who like to watch Apple Events to know what products Apple will start selling.

Most of the time, they forget all about the Macs, as they only use iPhone and with the occasional Apple Watch.

Seeing that the trash can Mac Pro, the cheese grater Mac Pro, AND the iMac Pro was released all in December, I wouldn't see Apple leak a consumer product 6 months after they release it.

Yes, we had the Developer Transition Kit at WWDC2020, but is that even a product? People had to return it once Apple said it was time to return it.

Reason 4: There has never been a MacBook Air released at WWDC​

There has never been a MacBook Air revealed at WWDC. The reason is that it is a consumer product.

Reason 5: The transition is not complete​

We still have one more product that needs to be transitioned to M1. That is the Mac Pro. I can see Apple using UltraFusion technology with 2 or 4, or even 8 or 16 M1 Ultras (Wow, that would be expensive)... To get the 1.5 TB of Ram that no one needs. Or, Apple could add regular Ram, and the M1 Ultra chip, as well as the RTX 3090 (and 4090) GPU's in it, to keep it upgradable. I also expect Apple to somehow allow you to upgrade storage and Ram, but not so much the GPU.

And that is why Apple will not be releasing the M2 MacBook Air at WWDC. I could be completely wrong, but in the past, I have predicted the following things perfectly:

- M1 in the iPad Pro
- WWDC21 not having a Mac
- Very fast MacBook Pros at October 2021
- No MacBook Pro M2 at March 8
- iPhone SE 3 having A15 rather than the rumored A14
(You may notice these are all from 2021-2022, that is when I started to care about Apple Events.)

If you don't agree with me, feel free to reply down below.

Thanks for reading!

Perhaps the other speculation that it's a "Macbook" to preserve the slot for the smaller footprint Air is worth considering...

 

[MayaUser]

The 14s will get the same kind of upgrades as the SE, new chip in an old case, more RAM, and no physical camera upgrade, while the 14 Pros will be more of an upgrade with a new FaceID cutout, always on screen, and better cameras. But the 14s will not be less of an upgrade than the SE3.

the rumours says that even the chip will remain the A15...thats why im saying that is getting less of an upgrade
SE3 at least got
-5g,
-new SoC ,
- more Ram,
-more battery capacity...

the 14 compared to the 13..will get , maybe
-more ram
So based on math, SE will be more of an upgrade then the 14 will be compared to their predecessor
Again, im comparing SE lineup updates that are official, with 14 that is based on rumours , but everything is saying that this year will be a new era for greedy Apple, where the next iphone will not get a new SoC
Dont get me wrong , i hope you are right and Apple place the A16 in the 14 line up too

 

[exoticSpice]

the rumours says that even the chip will remain the A15...thats why im saying that is getting less of an upgrade
SE3 at least got
-5g,
-new SoC ,
- more Ram,
-more battery capacity...

the 14 compared to the 13..will get , maybe
-more ram
So based on math, SE will be more of an upgrade then the 14 will be compared to their predecessor
Again, im comparing SE lineup updates that are official, with 14 that is based on rumours , but everything is saying that this year will be a new era for greedy Apple, where the next iphone will not get a new SoC
Dont get me wrong , i hope you are right and Apple place the A16 in the 14 line up too

Pretty sure there will be more upgrades than just RAM for normal 14s.

I think A15 will still come to iPhone 14 but it will get a more GPU cores,

 

[theorist9]

I think anyone objectively thinking about it would have realized a while ago there won't be a MacBook Air at WWDC.

The stock is a very reliable indicator. I previously predicted changes to the iMac 27-inch and MBP 16-inch just by looking at the shipping lead times. In all cases, I've been 100% accurate.

Are you saying that, when models are to be discontinued, their shipping lead times increase? Here's current shipping lead times:

Base MBA's: Available for immediate pickup at local Apple Store; Shipping lead time is 1–3 weeks (Jun 14 - Jun 28)
BTO MBA's: Shipping lead time is 3–4 weeks (Jun 30 - Jul 7).

Using the Wayback machine, I check the Base MBAs' lead time on May 1. It was higher then (4-5 weeks), so shipping lead times have come down somewhat:

So are you convinced the Air won't be replaced because there's not been an increase in the shipping lead times beyond what we've been seeing?

I could maybe see this applying during normal situtations, where the shipping lead time is a few days, and Apple artificially increases it to much longer when they plan to discontinue a model. But with the shipping lead times already high, would Apple see the need to increase them further, even if it is planning to discontinue the Air?

And what about the fact that, even though the Base MBA's are available for immediate pickup at a local Apple Store, they've set the shipping lead time to 1–3 weeks (Jun 14-Jun 28)? For instance, if you look at other products available for immediate pickup at a local Apple store (like the base M1 Mini and base 13" MBP), their shipping lead time is only two days (Jun 7). Doesn't that suggest a new Air will be released at WWDC?

 

[JPack]

Are you saying that, when models are to be discontinued, their shipping lead times increase? Shipping lead times are already high for the Air, though they've probably been high all along due to COVID.

Yes, we saw that with 27-inch iMac. Lead time for that model jumped to one month immediately before it was discontinued. I started a thread about the topic in March.

Are you saying that, when models are to be discontinued, their shipping lead times increase? Here's current shipping lead times:

Base MBA: Available for immediate pickup at local Apple Store; Shipping lead time is 2–3 weeks (Jun 21 - Jun 28)
BTO MBA: Shipping lead time is 3–4 weeks (Jun 30 - Jul 7).

I'm seeing a 2-3 week lead time for a BTO configured with 7-core, 16GB, and Pinyin keyboard.

 

[JPack]

So are you convinced the Air won't be replaced because there's not been an increase in the shipping lead times beyond what we've been seeing?

I could maybe see this applying during normal situtations, where the shipping lead time is a few days, and Apple artificially increases it to much longer when they plan to discontinue a model. But with the shipping lead times already high, would Apple see the need to increase them further, even if it is planning to discontinue the Air?

Yes. If Apple plans to discontinue M1 MBA, the lead times would increase substantially. Because Quanta and Foxconn would be busy building the new replacement model. The longer lead time is also signal to dissuade customers from ordering such a BTO unit because it would end up being cancelled anyway.

There is the theory that if an M2 MBA is released, then the old one could remain at $899. However, I believe Kuo's prediction the new MBA will use an M1 variant and won't have mini LED. In that case, there is not enough difference between the new and old MBA to keep both models.

 

[JPack]

And what about the fact that, even though the Base MBA's are available for immediate pickup at a local Apple Store, they've set the shipping lead time to 1–3 weeks (Jun 14-Jun 28)? For instance, if you look at other products available for immediate pickup at a local Apple store (like the base M1 Mini and base 13" MBP), their shipping lead time is only two days (Jun 7). Doesn't that suggest a new Air will be released at WWDC?

Hard to say, as some of those products like M1 mini are probably coming from one of three Apple distribution centers in CA, TN, and PA. The MBA is probably running low on stock at all DCs and gets shipped direct from Quanta. These are all guesses of course.

 

[theorist9]

Yes, we saw that with 27-inch iMac. Lead time for that model jumped to one month immediately before it was discontinued. I started a thread about the topic in March.




I'm seeing a 2-3 week lead time for a BTO configured with 7-core, 16GB, and Pinyin keyboard.

View attachment 2013906

But if the lead time is already long enough that anyone who orders now isn't going to get it before WWDC, Apple has no need to jump the lead time further, even if it's going to be discontinued. So, in this case, the absence of a jump may not tell you anything.

I.e., your prediction technique (which is clever, BTW), might not apply here, because of the unusual case of an Apple product approaching EOL being hard to get and thus having long ship times to start with.

 

[JPack]

But if the lead time is already long enough that anyone who orders now isn't going to get it before WWDC, Apple has no need to jump the lead time further, even if it's going to be discontinued. So, in this case, the absence of a jump may not tell you anything.

It's the combination of two factors:

1) The lead time for BTO MBA is only 2-3 weeks, which still encourages people to still place an MBA order. With the 27-inch iMac, the lead time was 4-5 weeks.

2) Apple Stores are filled with stock on the base $999 model. If it were to be discontinued, there would be a natural draw down of stock, which many stores showing unavailable. We saw that with 27-inch iMac. Few stores have the $1,249 MBA in stock, but they all list June 29 as being available for pick up. If Apple was planning to delete that model, it should be marked as "unavailable" with no expected date.

 

[theorist9]

It's the combination of two factors:

1) The lead time for BTO MBA is only 2-3 weeks, which still encourages people to still place an MBA order. With the 27-inch iMac, the lead time was 4-5 weeks.

2) Apple Stores are filled with stock on the base $999 model. If it were to be discontinued, there would be a natural draw down of stock, which many stores showing unavailable. We saw that with 27-inch iMac. Few stores have the $1,249 MBA in stock, but they all list June 29 as being available for pick up. If Apple was planning to delete that model, it should be marked as "unavailable" with no expected date.

OK, thanks. I understand your argument.

Though note that's an argument they're not discontinuing the current MBA, as opposed to not introducing a new version. Given this, I suppose this scenario is possible (yeah, maybe it's a reach): The fact that ship times on the BTO MBA aren't that large (compared with, say, the 2-3 month shipping times for the BTO 14"/16" MBP's and Studio) indicates that production & distribution on the current MBA is going fairly well. If that's the case, and if Apple plans to release a new MBA but is concerned about initial supply problems with that model, might they keep offering the current MBA, but at a reduced price, during the transition period? [Granted, it would be cleaner to wait until production is fully geared up on the new MBA, and then discontinue the old one.]

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow!

 

[JPack]

OK, thanks. I understand your argument.

Though note that's an argument they're not discontinuing the current MBA, as opposed to not introducing a new version. Given this, I suppose this scenario is possible (yeah, maybe it's a reach): The fact that ship times on the BTO MBA aren't that large (compared with, say, the 2-3 month shipping times for the BTO 14"/16" MBP's and Studio) indicates that production & distribution on the current MBA is going fairly well. If that's the case, and if Apple plans to release a new MBA but is concerned about initial supply problems with that model, might they keep offering the current MBA, but at a reduced price, during the transition period? [Granted, it would be cleaner to wait until production is fully geared up on the new MBA, and then discontinue the old one.]

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow!

Yes, I think we'll all stay tuned for the next 24 hours!

I'm open to ideas, but the totality of the evidence available indicates a new MBA is unlikely at WWDC. For example, we heard when MBP 14/16 entered MP in August 2021.

14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros Finally Enter Mass Production

Apple suppliers have begun mass production of the upcoming redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros, intending to reach as many as 800,000 monthly...

www.macrumors.com

Today, Kuo tweeted he expects 6-7 million units of refreshed MBA to be shipped this year. That means up to 1 million units a month. That scale means something should have leaked from Quanta or Foxconn about mass production starting if WWDC was the venue.

So, we end up with the "paper launch" theory again. But there is nothing pressuring Apple to paper launch a refreshed MBA. That action would only result in M1 MBA taking a $100 price cut, or at minimum, drive drive down sales of the current MBA with no real gain.

 

[calstanford]

Wasn’t the first MacBook Air announced at WWDC?

He writes but doesn't read. Forget this whole post.

 

[senttoschool]

The reason why there will be no M2 MacBook Air, is that Apple cannot produce them with their current production issues they have at the moment.

The M2 chip will come when TSMC switches to 3nm next year most likely.

Chips don't change nodes like that. A chip is designed to target a single node. And given that Apple generally starts designing a chip 3-4 years ahead, we can say that M2 was in developing in 2019 already and was already targeting either 4nm or 3nm. Can't change nodes this late.

 

[staypuftforums]

The reason why there will be no M2 MacBook Air, is that Apple cannot produce them with their current production issues they have at the moment.

The M2 chip will come when TSMC switches to 3nm next year most likely.

Intel and AMD are going to eat Apple's lunch if that's the case.

 

[teh_hunterer]

Just as they can scale up a A15 SoC to make it an M1, they can scale down the M1 Pro to meet the thermal requirements to run in a MacBook device. Remember, this is not gonna be a wedged (manilla envelope) type Air anyway. Its gonna have a new chassis that will probably be as thick as the 2020 MBP M1 chassis.

They scale the A14 SoC to make it an M1 by adding CPU/GPU cores. The M1 scales up to an M1 Pro by adding CPU/GPU cores. To scale the M1 Pro down to fit a MacBook Air you would be removing CPU/GPU cores and then what would you have? An M1...

 

[Dave245]

This thread could age badly in a few hours

Who knows what will happen. However Youtubers and media have been invited to the Apple campus, i just don't see Apple inviting these people to sit in a room and watch the pre-recorded keynote. They didn't do that last year.

In the past Apple have announced products at WWDC, including the HomePod, Mac's and so on. I guess we will find out in a few hours time.

 

[Drosera]

I understand conjecture in the months and weeks leading up to WWDC, but in the days and hours beforehand, what's the point? Just wait.

NB - I understand this is not how human brains & excitement work...

 

[Pressure]

Apple Store is down ahead of WWDC.​

So perhaps we will get some awesome new bands for the Apple Watch ... or?!

 

[dandeco]

Yeah, I wouldn't expect to hear about any M2 Macs being released at this event. It's still kind of too soon. Hopefully we do get an M1 Pro-equipped Mac Mini or something to replace the higher-end Intel Mini.