Other Will iPhone 13 mini really come?

[IJBrekke]

Wait so you’re saying people will check their phones more being stuck at home? Maybe, but home is also where they might have other bigger devices available like computers and TVs, so maybe they would need to use their phones even less. It’s tough to say.

There’s definitely a substantial subset of iPhone users that also have a larger device at home (iPad) and usually use that. But the mini was released mid-pandemic, so you would need to upgrade to a smaller, more mobile option while stuck at home. I think a lot of people currently don’t see the point. Plus, those that do upgrade may not currently prioritize the mini’s strengths and will go with the larger options instead (that’s definitely what the numbers show.)

What I’m proposing here is far from the only reason for poor mini sales, but I do believe it at least contributes on some level.

 

[jeyf]

my cell phone gods are shining bright on me

i am soooo thrifty

i own an iphone 7 and it meets my needs.
looks like there will be 2 design cycles before apple drops support on the iPhone 7

in 2 years i plan to up buy to 5g and get a used iPhone 12mini for pennies on the US dollar!
there will be plenty of 5g coverage and T-mobile will offer a cut rate 5g plan

 

[Abstract]

Apple already made their investment in their 5.4” model. It’s a sunk cost, so it costs them very little to continue making updated models that don’t require a generational redesign. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Secondly, 6% of iPhone sales is still a lot of sales! In a way, it’s a sales success. Competition from other brands is coming, and I doubt Apple wants to give a competitor a 6 million phone market they have cornered, especially considering the low cost for them to do so.

And thirdly, I think COVID lockdownd affect buyer preferences, pushing people towards less pocketable options.

 

[DexBell]

my cell phone gods are shining bright on me

i am soooo thrifty

i own an iphone 7 and it meets my needs.
looks like there will be 2 design cycles before apple drops support on the iPhone 7

in 2 years i plan to up buy to 5g and get a used iPhone 12mini for pennies on the US dollar!
there will be plenty of 5g coverage and T-mobile will offer a cut rate 5g plan

You’d be wrong if you think 12 Minis are going to sell for “pennies on the dollar” in a few years. If anything, this will make the value of the Mini on the used market go up, not down, because there will be much fewer of them available then any other model.

 

[1rottenapple]

Mini 64gb is $1200aud here lol, what a rort. No wonder it’s not selling.

True. You’d have to want a small form factory with high specs to get the mini when bigger phones appear to most users to have better value, “for just a hundred dollars you get a bigger screen” type of thinking.

 

[1rottenapple]

You’d be wrong if you think 12 Minis are going to sell for “pennies on the dollar” in a few years. If anything, this will make the value of the Mini on the used market go up, not down, because there will be much fewer of them available then any other model.

I’m buying another mini that’s for sure

 

[QCassidy352]

I can't see how the mini is better value than the 11; the 11 can do everything the mini does besides 5g, and has a better battery, larger display, and is cheaper. I'm a 12 owner myself, only upgraded from the 11 because my father needed a new phone; had it not been for that I would have kept it till 2022. It's the phone most people should buy IMO.

I should have said “current flagship iPhone lineup,” meaning the 12 series. The SE is the best value in the lineup overall and the 11 is probably second.

 

[kevink2]

iPhone Pro Mini is what I wanted
Instead, I went with the Pro.

 

[yticolev]

More like the mini existed to create a specific price point (as mentioned above) and also as a price anchor to raise the price for the standard 6.1 inch 12.

For that reason I suspect we will certainly see an iPhone mini 12s/13/whatever its called in 2021. Beyond that I highly doubt it. Maybe it'll return for a future SE model?

Even if sales of the Mini don't increase later in the year as a number of analysts believe, 6% of 12 sales should translate into about 2 million units annually, and about 180 million dollars in revenue. I doubt if the cost of production is more than a couple dollars less than the 12 regular, so the profit margin won't suffer much. It does also help be a price anchor as you say raising all Apple margins.

I'm upgrading to the 13 because pretty sure it will be better in all regards (I would do it just for the better modem and battery life) and not because I think it is my last shot at the Mini. My bet is Apple continues the model.

 

[thadoggfather]

there's no evidence, anecdotal and rumors aside, that Mini was a flop

Also, even if it sold the worst of the three form factors, one of them has to be the worst selling one. Even if only two, one sells better than the other.

imo iPhone 12S mini (or 13, but S-cycle) will DEFINITELY happen

 

[JPack]

Even if sales of the Mini don't increase later in the year as a number of analysts believe, 6% of 12 sales should translate into about 2 million units annually, and about 180 million dollars in revenue. I doubt if the cost of production is more than a couple dollars less than the 12 regular, so the profit margin won't suffer much. It does also help be a price anchor as you say raising all Apple margins.

I'm upgrading to the 13 because pretty sure it will be better in all regards (I would do it just for the better modem and battery life) and not because I think it is my last shot at the Mini. My bet is Apple continues the model.

It's the opportunity cost of selling iPhone 12 mini instead of some other more successful iPhone.

People are missing the point when they suggest Apple would lose # units or $ revenue by not selling the mini. I doubt anybody is suggesting Apple stop offering a $699 device.

Apple could be selling some other more popular $699 iPhone, such one with a 5.8" LCD and sub-6 only.

 

[Apple_Robert]

I’m buying another mini that’s for sure

I plan to as well. Hopefully, this year's phone will be more than a small spec bump. Otherwise, I got no problem keeping my mini.

 

[murad_fourth]

I plan to as well. Hopefully, this year's phone will be more than a small spec bump. Otherwise, I got no problem keeping my mini.

You mean you have already a mini and plan to buy another mini?

That’s because you think iPhone 12 mini won’t be available to buy in the future? 😯

 

[Apple_Robert]

You mean you have already a mini and plan to buy another mini?

That’s because you think iPhone 12 mini won’t be available to buy in the future? 😯

I have a mini and if a new mini is released this year, I may buy it if it is more than a minor spec bump. That would give me two mini's. If one is not released, then I will start making plans to buy up several of the current model.

 

[Pilot Jones]

I don't think Apple will kill it off because the timing with which it released was far from ideal. There's three really important things to consider.

First, the fact that a ton of people looking for a compact, powerful iOS device bought the 2020 SE just 6 months before the Mini launched. Kind of a weird launch strategy in retrospect from Apple imho. The SE sold like hot cakes and I wonder if the Mini had dropped first, would that have reflected similar figures.

Second, the fact that the Mini was released a month after the regular iPhones. Lot of people wouldn't have waited and immediately upgraded. There were tons of posts on Macrumors itself at the time with people who said they were going to wait but eventually decided against it.

Third, the fact that this is not an enthusiast's phone. The same thing happened with the XR — terrible initial sales that snowballed into the best-selling phone of the year. It is entirely possible we'll see a similar slow-burn with the Mini as well.

 

[JPack]

Third, the fact that this is not an enthusiast's phone. The same thing happened with the XR — terrible initial sales that snowballed into the best-selling phone of the year. It is entirely possible we'll see a similar slow-burn with the Mini as well.

I've seen this repeated so many times, but unfortunately it isn't true. The XR was hot right from the start - which was predicted by analysts and confirmed by Apple. During the most recent Q1 earnings call, Apple didn't say a single word about the mini. There's no such thing as "slow burning" iPhone sales. iPhone sales have a short sales cycle and they peak immediately after launch - numbers only decrease with time.

Apple says the iPhone XR has been its top-selling iPhone since launch

Vice President Greg Joswiak talks up the iPhone XR as concerns swirl around demand for Apple’s newest smartphones.

www.cnet.com

We've seen time and again people are willing to wait. The XR is the best evidence. In terms of SE2 sales affecting mini sales, the iPhone 8 had always been available for those consumers. SE2 wasn't some remarkable compact device. The only thing remarkable was the price. Data shows it drew in a ton of Android switchers as result of the price.

 

[murad_fourth]

I don't think Apple will kill it off because the timing with which it released was far from ideal. There's three really important things to consider.

First, the fact that a ton of people looking for a compact, powerful iOS device bought the 2020 SE just 6 months before the Mini launched. Kind of a weird launch strategy in retrospect from Apple imho. The SE sold like hot cakes and I wonder if the Mini had dropped first, would that have reflected similar figures.

Second, the fact that the Mini was released a month after the regular iPhones. Lot of people wouldn't have waited and immediately upgraded. There were tons of posts on Macrumors itself at the time with people who said they were going to wait but eventually decided against it.

Third, the fact that this is not an enthusiast's phone. The same thing happened with the XR — terrible initial sales that snowballed into the best-selling phone of the year. It is entirely possible we'll see a similar slow-burn with the Mini as well.

I am in the second group but i regret now i didn’t wait and bought iPhone 12 instead of the mini model. 🥺

 

[nrvous1]

I am in the second group but i regret now i didn’t wait and bought iPhone 12 instead of the mini model. 🥺

So was I, but I now have both. The 12 and the 12 mini. 🙂

 

[murad_fourth]

So was I, but I now have both. The 12 and the 12 mini. 🙂

Are you using them both?

 

[subjonas]

There's no such thing as "slow burning" iPhone sales. iPhone sales have a short sales cycle and they peak immediately after launch - numbers only decrease with time.

I don’t know if anyone can know for sure either way since Apple doesn’t release breakdown sales figures, but I remember hearing iPhone 5c sales found their footing later in their cycle.
Here are a couple articles that suggest it:

Strong iPhone 5c sales gave Apple highest growth in mid-range iPhone market | AppleInsider

With record iPhone sales in Apple's June quarter, the largest growth actually came from the company's mid-range handset lineup, which is represented this year by the colorful iPhone 5c.

appleinsider.com

iPhone 5c growth outperformed the iPhone 5s last quarter

Apple doesn't break down its iPhone sales figures by model type, but Tim Cook during yesterday's earnings conference call provided a few interesting crumbs regarding iPhone 5c sales growth last quarter. I can tell you this. That if you look at the growth rates, we don't divide out each one but...

www.engadget.com

 

[yticolev]

I have a mini and if a new mini is released this year, I may buy it if it is more than a minor spec bump. That would give me two mini's. If one is not released, then I will start making plans to buy up several of the current model.

Depends on what you consider minor. We already know it will have a much more efficient modem that is faster and uses less energy. That would be enough for me, without considering the faster more efficient CPU that comes with every refresh, the small bump in battery capacity that has happened on every refresh, the strong likelihood of camera sensor shift stabilization (including the Mini), and a decent chance of Touch ID implementation.

 

[Apple_Robert]

Depends on what you consider minor. We already know it will have a much more efficient modem that is faster and uses less energy. That would be enough for me, without considering the faster more efficient CPU that comes with every refresh, the small bump in battery capacity that has happened on every refresh, the strong likelihood of camera sensor shift stabilization (including the Mini), and a decent chance of Touch ID implementation.

If what you mentioned comes to fruition, I would consider that a decent spec bump for me. if it is mainly camera and chip bump, I am not sure that will be enough. I am very happy with the mini right now. It is still early so, we have plenty of time for facts to come to light.

 

[JPack]

I don’t know if anyone can know for sure either way since Apple doesn’t release breakdown sales figures, but I remember hearing iPhone 5c sales found their footing later in their cycle.

It's important to remember Apple essentially had a fire sale going on with the iPhone 5c only one month after it was launched.

Two Weeks After Launch, Walmart Drops Price of the iPhone 5c to $45 After Best Buy's Offer

How low can you go? Walmart and Best Buy both cut price of Apple's iPhone 5c.

abcnews.go.com

Tim Cook said "if you look at year-over-year growth rates and so this would be comparing the 5C to last year. It would be comparing the 4S, which was in the mid-tier. The growth in that sector was the highest growth during the quarter we just finished." Sure, if you burn both ends of the candle on day one, I wouldn't be surprised Apple saw growth. I don't think that's what Apple planned for the 5c though.

 

[satchmo]

You’d be wrong if you think 12 Minis are going to sell for “pennies on the dollar” in a few years. If anything, this will make the value of the Mini on the used market go up, not down, because there will be much fewer of them available then any other model.

If the 12 Mini is indeed a one year model, hedge your bet and buy one today and don't touch it.
I suspect the increased value of an unopened iPhone 12 Mini next year would be substantial.

 

[QCassidy352]

It's the opportunity cost of selling iPhone 12 mini instead of some other more successful iPhone.

People are missing the point when they suggest Apple would lose # units or $ revenue by not selling the mini. I doubt anybody is suggesting Apple stop offering a $699 device.

Apple could be selling some other more popular $699 iPhone, such one with a 5.8" LCD and sub-6 only.

Well I’m not sure that would be more popular (iPhone 11 would undercut it quite a bit), but even if it were, is that a good thing for Apple? It depend on whether those additional $699 phone sales come from 12/pro buyers moving down (bad), SE/Xr/11 buyers moving up (good), or new buyers entirely (very good). Unless it’s mostly the third group, it probably makes very little difference to Apple.