One thing for sure: organic victory because it’s a better product isn’t usually telling the whole story. See Betamax vs VHS to know that the outright better product doesn’t always win. Further, how deftly the company handles product roll outs, advertising as well as deals with suppliers as well as how existing user base feels about the company/product and potential user base feels about the company in general. It is or can be more than product superiority.
if I suggested it was as simple as the best product won? Then I should have prefaced it with these other numerous potential side factors (sheer luck can be a factor too).
The mobile phone market is at very best Duopoly-ish. Outside of just a couple of markets, it’s actually much closer to monopoly. Android is about 85% of the WW mobile os market and is likely, within a few years, to be almost 90%. Google is a HUGE company with very near monopoly numbers WW. Apple is a HUGE company with a modicum above niche player WW(forecasts say Apple mobile OS will actually decline up to 2% in the next several years). I think it was about 2000 when Microsoft had 91% of the OS market and Macs had 8%. Apple Macs were repeatedly referred to as a niche market. iPhones as a % of the market is not too far from that.
So If you’re truly concerned about mobile OS being impenetrable by another company, you need only to speak to the Google HQ in Mountain View, CA.
The argument (apps must be open to everyone, that fixes it) doesn’t square with the history. When I went from my Galaxy to my first iPhone, the 6+, one of the few negatives was a very distinct reduction in my apps choice. So if limited app choice was MS/Windows’ demise (a company with a HUGE existing user base and engineers coming out their ears), then Apple should have failed too. Further, Microsoft had the All Day Long money and ability to create apps. Unfortunately for Windows, too many people equate Windows with bugs, blue screens, the sometimes very unfair but nevertheless negative view on Windows. I would have never went with a Windows phone and I was not alone on that. Windows to us was the one we had to unfortunately use but always we’re happy to be using Linux instead (Servers).
But to your ultimate point, IMHO, that Apple shouldn’t have the walled garden. It is straight up unreality to suggest it is Apple apps that holds out other companies (like Windows). The soon to be 90% mobile OS dominating player’s store is ultra thick with app choices. That’s who/where you need to be talking too. That’s who you want to talk to to get more companies making mobile os platforms. Apple already purposefully limits their app offerings (the new player will immediately have a leg up on Apple by offering more choices) and Apple’s mobile os share is too small to have any WW market impact. (Fyi, 1. Apple will not be taking down the wall as much as some desperately insist they must be like the near monopoly company), 2. And you heard it here first, The duopoly talk and apps/walled garden push will land in Google’s lap far more so)
