Android in Decline?

[Michael Scrip]

Worldwide... Android has definitely had a tremendous rise from nothing to ~75% since 2008... especially since all those classic smartphone platforms have disappeared (Blackberry, Nokia, Windows, etc)

But in the last 5 years... Android (the orange line) and iOS (the gray line) have pretty much settled in.

I can't imagine there will be any more massive shifts, up or down, for either platform. This is probably where it's gonna remain for a while.

 

[One2Grift]

That's what I don't get about Apple.

If I were in charge, I'd be making lower entry point devices, globally. They'd absolutely kill.
All the people who buy the premium devices will still buy premium devices.

It's not like they don't have the equity to do so....

Who knows for sure, you may be right. And for certain, Apple in the short term loses out on a ton of sales by not following a more Amazon-ish route (provide options at all levels of the market space). However, I am not one of those who agree. Apple going after the cheaper cost spaces of the market would be a mistake (yes, on rare occasions they do offer modestly lower end of the space).
id liken it to BMW. They could try to compete with the Ford Fiesta but BMW’s name would be on that low end product. The BMW Ford Fiesta?BMW would be marketing it in a space that is very occupied with existing players that do it cheap and decently. In the long run BMW is unlikely to succeed. But their premium name as plastered all over the marketing of the low end car.
BMW has worked hard over the years to make their name synonymous with a quality higher end product. You pay a premium for the name and the quality experience you expect behind it. Apple has for many years tried to be the same way with their name and product.
In terms of company dollar value, maybe only the Dutch East Indies trading company (circa 1600s) has ever been a bigger company than Apple. Given Apple’s incredible success selling a name, its quality for mid to higher end, with a safer ‘securer’ easier to use eco — which allows for thst premium added to the price — why would they change that(risk that) to battle in markets that Amazon, Google, several Chinese companies occupy very fully?

 

[One2Grift]

Worldwide... Android has definitely had a tremendous rise from nothing to ~75% since 2008... especially since all those classic smartphone platforms have disappeared (Blackberry, Nokia, Windows, etc)

But in the last 5 years... Android (the orange line) and iOS (the gray line) have pretty much settled in.

I can't imagine there will be any more massive shifts, up or down, for either platform. This is probably where it's gonna remain for a while.

View attachment 1796267

Good chart. Looks like they’ve settled in for a few years. However it’s the line projected beyond that. 2021 sees about half the world own a smartphone. In 4 years that’s expected to grow by up to a billion. The places that are not very penetrated are almost Android exclusive. Just a Few places that Apple’s share is higher than their average are quite penetrated (US 70%, Japan 60). Bottom line: the cost inexpensive smartphones running Android will see that Android line take a precipitous upward swing. Apple’s will take a modest down (though still expanding their user base, they’ll not capture even close to enough to stay with the market growth. Android will be above 80% and begin to be in view of 90. And it is very impressive whatGoogle did. Their OS will be the most used OS to access the web, eventually more than all others combined. A staggeringly gold star achievement given MS dominance just 10 years ago).

 

[Michael Scrip]

Good chart. Looks like they’ve settled in for a few years. However it’s the line projected beyond that. 2021 sees about half the world own a smartphone. In 4 years that’s expected to grow by up to a billion. The places that are not very penetrated are almost Android exclusive. Just a Few places that Apple’s share is higher than their average are quite penetrated (US 70%, Japan 60). Bottom line: the cost inexpensive smartphones running Android will see that Android line take a precipitous upward swing. Apple’s will take a modest down (though still expanding their user base, they’ll not capture even close to enough to stay with the market growth. Android will be above 80% and begin to be in view of 90. And it is very impressive whatGoogle did. Their OS will be the most used OS to access the web, eventually more than all others combined. A staggeringly gold star achievement given MS dominance just 10 years ago).

Ah I see... Android will likely take an upward swing as more people on Earth enter the smartphone world.

But then what?

There are already three Android phones sold for every one iPhone... and Android's smartphone installed base is a similar amount more than the iPhone as well.

So what is Android gonna do with ~90% market share that they can't already do with ~70% market share?

I'm not doubting your numbers... they make perfect sense when you consider more of the under-developed world is getting online.

I'm just wondering what the results will be.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

That was the entire point of this thread. I care less either way as well. Just proving the point of this thread that android is NOT in decline. It's actually gaining more users every quarter. I was a happy apple mobile user until halfway through my stint with my 8. Lots of issues with iOS since then, and now I am almost free of the crap. and happier as well I might add.

Glad you’ve found a mobile that gives you as little stress as possible, that’s what it’s all about .

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

I totally get the worldwide picture. However I think it depends on where you live. In the UK the iPhone isn't niche with just over 50% of smartphone owners using ios. Also there are differences regionally. Where I live in the UK, iPhone ownership is much higher I'd say about 80% in my town own iPhones. Where I work it's about 70% iPhone and 30% android. However in London it's much more mixed. I went on a training session a few months ago in London and I was the only person with an iPhone in the room.

However I think outside of the USA, Australia and select European countries it's predominantly android. Even in big European countries like Germany and France iPhone ownership is very low. I understand that in developing countries android phones are favoured because the cost of iphones are too high. However in most European countries for example where most people can afford an iPhone if they wanted to they are choosing android phones because they feel thay offer better value.

However even as a predominantly niche product, the iPhone makes a lot of money for Apple. So apple might not have the same market share as android but they are making more money from hardware than all the other android OEMs.

Google have their fingers in so many pies and they have a steady stream of income.

Samsung don't only make phones but other electrical devices and are involved in he manufacture of parts so they are set up well.

In my part of Wales I find the iPhone is most popular too. The people I work with from other parts of Europe tend to favour Android. Nearly everybody I know uses an iPhone and it’s a prevalent device out and about socially too here. Not always the most up to date Pro models, but iPhones nonetheless.

 

[Steve Adams]

Glad you’ve found a mobile that gives you as little stress as possible, that’s what it’s all about .

Exactly. Being a fanboy/girl of any system, platform etc is silly. I am also liking the freedom of using other services as well. Like Readly. It's a much better version of News+. If I was'nt fed up with apple, I would have never went looking for this type of service, I am glad I did. Hundreds of magazine titles not available in News.

 

[One2Grift]

I totally get the worldwide picture. However I think it depends on where you live. In the UK the iPhone isn't niche with just over 50% of smartphone owners using ios. Also there are differences regionally. Where I live in the UK, iPhone ownership is much higher I'd say about 80% in my town own iPhones. Where I work it's about 70% iPhone and 30% android. However in London it's much more mixed. I went on a training session a few months ago in London and I was the only person with an iPhone in the room.

However I think outside of the USA, Australia and select European countries it's predominantly android. Even in big European countries like Germany and France iPhone ownership is very low. I understand that in developing countries android phones are favoured because the cost of iphones are too high. However in most European countries for example where most people can afford an iPhone if they wanted to they are choosing android phones because they feel thay offer better value.

However even as a predominantly niche product, the iPhone makes a lot of money for Apple. So apple might not have the same market share as android but they are making more money from hardware than all the other android OEMs.

Google have their fingers in so many pies and they have a steady stream of income.

Samsung don't only make phones but other electrical devices and are involved in he manufacture of parts so they are set up well.

very true. Apple has a good share in a handful of select countries: US, Japan, UK. They do fairly well in the 10 most developed countries(but These 10 are very penetrated). Even in France and Germany, Germany saw 2021 iPhone sales jump to almost 30%. In France the iPhone were 3 out of top 5 sales volume. Apple can and likely will see some modicum of growth there. But as mentioned those are fairly penetrated markets. And the market split isn’t likely to change dramatically.
But Android’s dominance will grow to its ultra lofty height (noting these are projections so they aren’t etched in stone) because the countries that will see the up to 1b total growth will be much more in the less penetrated, developing markets. Android will massively dominate this number causing quite a climb in their WW share.

Google does have their fingers in a lot of the pies but it doesn’t make money off an Android license (it used to be free open source, I assume it still is). Google makes the significant majority of money from advertising.

 

[FrozenInferno]

When I switched to my Samsung a few years ago I was fed up with the state of Apple products at the time and swore off ever coming back. Yet here I am, back on a 12 and loving it more than before. My Samsung was a great phone but the little things add up after a while and the shortcomings overcame the benefits and became too much to ignore. Especially after becoming a father. My daughter is growing up and the need for efficient photo and video sharing with family (who are 95% on iPhone) becoming more and more important. The seamless combination of iMessage, AirDrop, and iCloud photos syncing across my phone, iPad and watch without me having to even think about it has proven to be more beneficial than I would have imagined.

The grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

 

[alien3dx]

Worldwide... Android has definitely had a tremendous rise from nothing to ~75% since 2008... especially since all those classic smartphone platforms have disappeared (Blackberry, Nokia, Windows, etc)

But in the last 5 years... Android (the orange line) and iOS (the gray line) have pretty much settled in.

I can't imagine there will be any more massive shifts, up or down, for either platform. This is probably where it's gonna remain for a while.

View attachment 1796267

the problem some fan thinking apple revenue higher mean market share high.. for me as developer. We know allready if not we no money lol..

 

[I7guy]

Not at all. My wife, My mother in law, my son and myself are all moving to full android. Ipads and iphones are all being shelved. My mother in law's iphone 6s is showing 87 percent battery health, meanwhile the phone goes dead in 15 min. Apple did a hardware test and found nothing wrong. Never again. Apple hardware is massively overrated.

In that vein, my extended family consisting of about 50 people have all moved to iphones, except a few. Anecdotal evidence is powerful.

 

[TopherMan12]

Going back to the OP. iOS is the system in decline. So many bugs, no customization, looks like it's from 10 years ago now. Nothing new and exciting. Both my wife and I are gone from iOS. She was an apple fan, but even she's sick of the constant bugs, and boring look of the iOS.

I don't see the bugs at all personally. I didn't see them in Android either. Both platforms are pretty rock solid these days as far as that is concerned. Customization will always be an Android advantage and there is no denying that. But for a lot of people, it really doesn't matter and that's not why they buy iPhone.

Either way, anecdotal preferences are not an indication that iOS is in decline. I think the argument that either Android or iPhone are in "decline" is just silly when both camps are as competitive as they have ever been. Again, if we want to characterize decline in any real way then we would have to see a pattern of decreasing market share over a period of time. That simply isn't happening in either case.

 

[Steve Adams]

In that vein, my extended family consisting of about 50 people have all moved to iphones, except a few. Anecdotal evidence is powerful.

See my post after that. Its not just my family. more are moving or getting android devices now than ever before. Glad your family is happy with apple. We were for a long time. It's time to move on now.

 

[I7guy]

See my post after that. Its not just my family. more are moving or getting android devices now than ever before. Glad your family is happy with apple. We were for a long time. It's time to move on now.

Everybody should get the smartphones they are happy with. There are always trade-offs and at least for me, I want to minimize the bad trade-offs while maximizing the positive trade-offs. And IOS does it better for me.

 

[Steve Adams]

Everybody should get the smartphones they are happy with. There are always trade-offs and at least for me, I want to minimize the bad trade-offs while maximizing the positive trade-offs. And IOS does it better for me.

Agreed. iOS used to do it for me, but the notification and connectivity issues I am having with our 3 iphones, and the MIL's battery showing 87 percent battery health, but still dying in 15 mins (you can just watch the battery percentage drop on her phone). Just enough is enough at this point. who knows. I maybe will be back on iOS in the future, but as of right now. It's a no go for me. My son's (my previous ipad) just keeps kicking him out of apps constantly...I am going to get him a new S6 lite and he will stop complaining about his ipad.

 

[Steve Adams]

Worldwide... Android has definitely had a tremendous rise from nothing to ~75% since 2008... especially since all those classic smartphone platforms have disappeared (Blackberry, Nokia, Windows, etc)

But in the last 5 years... Android (the orange line) and iOS (the gray line) have pretty much settled in.

I can't imagine there will be any more massive shifts, up or down, for either platform. This is probably where it's gonna remain for a while.

View attachment 1796267

I see that nice bump in 2012 for windows phone and I could cry. That was the best OS I have ever used, add in the mighty nokia 1020 and it was SOOOO GOOD. Even today 99 percent of photos from phones pale in comparison to the look of images from the 1020. It ripped everything in low light as well up until computational imaging of the 11.

 

[spinedoc77]

We just said F'it. If our bubbles are green, Who the F cares. You want to "facetime", download duo. If not, we don't need to talk to you. We are done with Apple's strongarm bull.

Yah I said F'it as well. This last weekend was my last attempt, I tried to switch back to iOS but after being on Android now for the better part of a year realized I really disliked iOS. We get by, I use Samsung link to link to videos and use email as well, facetime they have all learned to use Zoom with me, although the new changes coming for facetime are promising.

 

[Zaft]

Worldwide... Android has definitely had a tremendous rise from nothing to ~75% since 2008... especially since all those classic smartphone platforms have disappeared (Blackberry, Nokia, Windows, etc)

But in the last 5 years... Android (the orange line) and iOS (the gray line) have pretty much settled in.

I can't imagine there will be any more massive shifts, up or down, for either platform. This is probably where it's gonna remain for a while.

View attachment 1796267

The OP never talked about Marketshare. Decline was used about features.

 

[spinedoc77]

That’s so true. Right now there is a prime deal on the S21 Plus unlocked for $699. I almost jumped on it but I know I’ll be back to iOS within days.
Everyone I know is on IOS and it makes life easy.

I tried to go back but just couldn't. iOS is so restrictive, I found many things I just could flat out not do anymore. I do also agree with others assesment that they are "boring" now, even their widgets are kind of boring. Don't get me wrong, Android widgets are all over the place with different fonts, styles, etc and Apple's widgets all look perfectly neat and organized. But there is something about the wild west widgets on Android that has a lot of appeal. Setting up my home screen to have live feeds of my kids room, a live stock ticker, live and scrollable/actionable email and google voice, etc. just makes my productivity better.

I really dig stuff that my Fold 2 has, although this is really only Samsung and not Android, stuff like having multiple windows. This is aside from Apple even having a shrinkable phone, which *might* happen in a few years. On the app side I think the straw that broke the camel's back was Vanced. I only use youtube occasionally, but having to slog through multiple commercials is just painful. I don't have an issue with the monthly sub, but I really only use it a few times a week and don't feel it's worth $12/month for that. Don't even get me started on the Apple news app, it's devolved so much, basically Apple made it a pain to use unless you pay the News monthly sub. Every 3rd article is News+ only and you have to scroll over all of those stories, or accidently hit them and then back out. Sorry Apple but there are free and just as good news apps out there. Another issue was storage, once you go over 200gb the only option is to jump up to 9.99/month. I don't necessarily have an issue with subscriptions, but when they all start adding up to stuff I rarely use or don't find particularly valuable then I have to draw the line.

 

[Michael Scrip]

Then OP never talked about market share. Decline was used about features.

I know...

But in 14 pages of comments... the market share topic was mentioned quite a bit. And I thought it would be useful to actually illustrate it with a handy chart.

Cheers

 

[spinedoc77]

UFS is a huge deal, I think people don’t realize just how bad the storage degradation was on Android for some time and just how much not only this degradation but the slower speeds impacted performance perceptions independently

Android is still a cluster**** in the UI latency department - while Windows phone for example felt much smoother despite running on commodity hardware. But the Android 120hz displays and polling + efficient Android menus without gluttonous animations that Apple love, kind of make up for it.

Android seems to have slowed down lately, my Fold 2 stutters and sometimes is slow to respond. But at the same time I have noticed Apple has been on a decline for the last 2 or 3 generations, animations can be slow, apps stutter and freeze and the phones slow down more than they used to. I don't know if more modern apps are pushing both iOS and Android harder, but neither are perfect.

 

[Steve Adams]

Ok, Features.....android devices win that in spades. There's stuff on android that should have been on ios years ago.

 

[The-Real-Deal82]

Ok, Features.....android devices win that in spades. There's stuff on android that should have been on ios years ago.

As someone who has recently moved across, what features are you using now that you couldn’t on iOS? What are you enjoying the most?

 

[Zaft]

I know...

But in 14 pages of comments... the market share topic was mentioned quite a bit. And I thought it would be useful to actually illustrate it with a handy chart.

Cheers

Understood. Your right.

 

[Zaft]

In general I don’t believe Android is in decline in feature. Android almost always has things first.

Apple takes a different strategy, they see what works, they refine it and sometimes make a better version.

the good thing is that there is competition. The Note series is what pushed Apple to adopt bigger screens.