I have #MacBookFear

[ADGrant]

I would only recommend this if you can get a really good deal on one. At this point I would not pay more than maybe 60-70% of the cost of a new 15" for a 2015 with a dGPU (~$1500). Apple currently wants $1700 for a refurb with and Iris Pro for graphics. That is too high for what is nearly 4-year old hardware.

Agreed, but if you already have a 2014 or 2015 rMBP, maybe just keep using it.

 

[LeeW]

No. This is a common fallacy. In terms of a statistically significant comparison of the quality of the various apple notebook computers, it is not evidence.

From a laptop point of view and specifically Apple, you have 3 choices, MacBook, MacBook Air and the MacBook Pro. But only one choice of keyboard. Well three, but all revisions of the same design of which two are definitely known to be enough of an issue that a warranty program has been put in place.

A decision on whether or not to purchase a 2018 Apple MacBook Pro should not be made based on the information provided in these threads, yet, many have indicated that they are making decisions based on the information contained in this and similar threads.

I agree in some cases, if you root out the 'fear in advance of purchase' threads like this one and focus on the actual issues people are experiencing, there are enough reports outside of Apple's refusal to give us numbers that demonstrate an issue does exist.

That is a design issue which leads to a failure of the keyboard or part thereof. Not a 1 in x failure of a part that could reasonably be expected because parts do fail.

For Windows users, you can have a bad experience, leave it behind and move to another manufacturer, not so with Apple if you have a desire to stay with them.

And as many people have said, you pay a premium, you expect a premium product. Apple is one company, you cannot expect perfection in every device even at a premium, but when it goes wrong Apple has a tendency to duck and dive.

Having said that I know more people with MBP devices back to 2016 that have had zero issues on any of the keyboards than those that have. But, in my view, 4 out of 11 is too high for it to be swept away as a non-issue.

Apple still have me, and they will keep me for now, I have the new Mac Mini, A new MBP being delivered today, iPad Pro 10.5, iPhone Xs and a Gen 2 Watch.

Am I too stuck in the Eco-system to get out? Or am I a fanboy?

I'm not a fan of Apple, I'm a fan of what works for my needs. Right now it just happens that Apple products best serve my needs. Tomorrow that could vastly change.

Exactly this.

 

[ADGrant]

Maybe, but no one can deny the fact that butterfly keyboard has failures. I think you're failing to see the forest through the trees. We have one of the oldest, and most durable components of a computer, which apple "improved" and suddenly people are incurring failures.

I wouldn't call the keyboard one of the most durable components of a computer, its one of the least. A keyboard is a mechanical device like a hard drive, both have alway been prone to failure. On a laptop you also have the cable connecting the screen to the motherboard. Apple has recently screwed this up but I had a Dell with these issues over 15 years ago. The original IBM keyboards were great, they have been getting progressively worse ever since.

 

[CrazyForCashews]

I would only recommend this if you can get a really good deal on one. At this point I would not pay more than maybe 60-70% of the cost of a new 15" for a 2015 with a dGPU (~$1500). Apple currently wants $1700 for a refurb with and Iris Pro for graphics. That is too high for what is nearly 4-year old hardware.

I think buying a 2015 MacBook Pro brand new is next to impossible, but you can find fantastic deals buying used. That's what I did. I wanted to buy a brand new one but couldn't find any for sale here in Canada, so just picked up a "used" one instead in pretty much like new condition with low battery cycles.

Saved a ton of money, and Tylenol too.

 

[aggie99]

Returned my 2018 15" MBP i7 16 GB/512 GB SSD due to the fear of the keyboard failing or the stagelight effect eventually becoming an issue. Got a Dell XPS 15 i7 32 GB Ram/1 TB SSD with a better GPU for considerably less. To top it off the 4k screen is amazing. While I still prefer macOS I don't mind Windows 10. I use it on my work desktop exclusively so it's not like I'm unfamiliar with a Windows machine and I have not had any issues with the OS. While I am still firmly entrenched in the Apple ecosystem with my iPhone, 12.9 iPad pro, Homepod, 3 Apple TV 4ks, I have no problem moving away from the Mac after so many years. Hopefully Apple listens to their customer base and builds a machine on par with the quality of the previous model MBPs.

 

[maflynn]

The “real” chance of keyboard failure for 16-17 models is probably under 10% with most conservative estimates.

That's way too high for a premium product and that's an estimation, it certainly could be much higher since apple hasn't provided actual numbers.

 

[happyhippo1337]

I have had a quite long odyssee with laptops in general over the last few years.
Let me begin by saying, that the grass is not always greener on the other side. I use Windows and Mac OS for way over ten years now and generally prefer Windows. Windows 10 is awesome and people telling me that it's unstable and crashing all the time are flat out wrong.

• Bought a Dell XPS 15 9330 a few years ago. Terrible machine, was only useable after a few months and several firmware updates. From time to time would not find the boot SSD. Terrible IGZO display, 80ms response time. Unusable for me.
• Sold it at a big loss and got the MBPT 15'' 2016. Had to swap it two times due to the infamous red blocks appearing on screen whenever the GPU was used. The UI was extremely sluggish and I caved eventually, getting a complete refund after escalating the issue with the Apple Store business team.
• Surface Book 1 - don't even get me started.
• Surface Book 2 15'' - awesome machine. A joy to use. But with combined CPU and GPU load the battery is draining while plugged in. Then I noticed severe bluetooth problems with every headphone I connected to the machine. After three weeks, some keys got sticky when not hitting them perfectly center.
• Exchanged it for a Surface Book 2 13''. Super slow display response times, severe coil whine, exact same key getting sticky after only five days of use. Tried a few demo units in store that all had the same issue.
• Tried an HP Spectre X360 15'' that had severe coil whine as well.
• Bought the 15'' MBPT 2018 after reading about the supposedly more reliable keyboard. This unit developed dead pixels and an insane amount of coil whine that was unbearable and even audible from the other end of the room.

At this point, as you might imagine, I was more than pissed and considered Lenovo, although I didn't wanna buy one after they shipped machines with rootkits preinstalled and basically lied about it for months. But I did:

• X1 Carbon 6 had a blown out left speaker right out of the box
• Exchanged unit had the same problem and was getting extremely hot even in idle, with CPU voltage severely lowered and even with disabling Turbo Boost. Also the extreme glossyness my HDR model had made it impossible to use the machine in any but the most perfect lighting conditions. While at client meetings I always had to ask for a spot that didn't have a windows behind me.
  
• X1 Yoga - was said to have a still glossy, but less reflective screen. Yeah, that is true. But the unit I got had debries and dirt below the glas panel right out of the box
• Surface Laptop 2. I opened seven (!) of these in store and each and every one of them had dead pixels. My current model only developed them after a month but now has three already. With light to moderate use and taking extreme care of it.

So here I am, with an again 2018 15'' MBPT that I got for a good price. Coil whine again, and external screens black out every time after a few minutes of use, doesn't matter what kind of USB-C to display port cable I attach to it. Considering my history with laptops in the last few years and looking at Apple's current track-record with MBP reliability, I am forced to buy a 399€ Apple Care Plus plan only to make sure I can use this thing for at least three years. Totally unacceptable normally, but let me tell you: laptops have gone down the drain so hard in the last few years that at this point I just don't care anymore.

I had the option to buy a Mac Mini for 1299 or the MBPT 2018 for 2.100. Latter seemed the better option, even if I currently only move it occasionally. But having the option to use this as a stationary machine and rarely take it back home or to a client meeting was worth the extra cost to me.

Let me end this horror by saying that my girlfriend obviously only ever bought one Mac. The 2016 13'' without touchbar. She doesn't take any care with it, it's constantly abused and working perfectly fine. The keys are all functioning well and never had to be cleaned with compressed air or anything
[doublepost=1549206558][/doublepost]

That's way too high for a premium product and that's an estimation, it certainly could be much higher since apple hasn't provided actual numbers.

There are numerous podcasters and other well known people I follow on Twitter that have problems with the keyboards, yet haven't come around to exchanging their units due to needing them for work. A MacBook repair is currently impossible in any German Apple Store, as genius bar appointsments are *never* available in any store at all. Taking it to an authorized reseller would take 3-4 weeks. Most people simply can't afford to not have a machine for work for this long and will do everything they can to delay the inevitable repair. I would guess that the failure rate of the 2018 model is way above 10% and it will for sure get added to the extended keyboard warranty program. Mark my words.

 

[LeeW]

I have had a quite long odyssee with laptops in general over the last few years.

Thanks for that. Just when I think my luck is the worst, someone comes along to prove me wrong

 

[Cashmonee]

I think buying a 2015 MacBook Pro brand new is next to impossible, but you can find fantastic deals buying used. That's what I did. I wanted to buy a brand new one but couldn't find any for sale here in Canada, so just picked up a "used" one instead in pretty much like new condition with low battery cycles.

Saved a ton of money, and Tylenol too.

Apple themselves were selling them as recently as last summer and they were still available new at retailers until very recently. Apple does sell a refurbished, non-dGPU version for US$1699 which to me is overpriced for that machine. But yes a used one can be a good deal.

For those talking about data. What little data we have shows that Apple still ranks at the top for reliability and that the 2016 and 2017 are at least as reliable as the earlier models, and possibly more reliable.

Ah yes, but on Dell support forums are people talking about specific systemic issues (Keyboard, display flex, T2 kernel panics etc) or just general issues arising from chance component failures? I don’t think anyone can complain about happening to get a screen with a dead pixel, but I do think there’s grounds to be unhappy if you go through 2+ machines with the same keyboard problem. In the latter case that suggests a design flaw, not a manufacturing defect.

Funny you should mention that! Common problems for the Dell XPS15 include backlight bleed, coil whine (imagine that!), overheating, and you aren't going to believe me, but keyboard issues (repeating and skipped keys).

The fact of the matter is that all manufacturers are trying to cram more into a smaller space. This has led to a host of issues with all of the brands. Honestly, to me it is all about picking your poison. In my case, I have an Apple Store nearby and I am pretty entrenched in the ecosystem so at this point I choose Apple.

 

[LeeW]

For those that have an interest, I chatted to friends who have a MBP.

11 in total.

4 had keyboard issues (36%)
0 T2 issues
0 Screen issues
1 Coil while
1 replacement as DoA

In the office, IT looked at 38 MBP's in Nov 2018

9 had keyboard issues (23%)
0 T2 issues
4 Screen issues (none related to stage lighting)
2 Coil Whine
4 Other (don't know what these were)

 

[maflynn]

I wouldn't call the keyboard one of the most durable components of a computer, its one of the least.

I have to disagree, I have keyboards from the 90s that still function and at work I have a 12 year old keyboard that has endured all sorts of abuse but keeps on chugging

 

[smirking]

The fact of the matter is that all manufacturers are trying to cram more into a smaller space. This has led to a host of issues with all of the brands. Honestly, to me it is all about picking your poison.

I have to admit that because of all the constant negative chatter around here about butterfly keys, I got a bit overconfident in the durability of older style laptop keyboards even though I wasn't particularly worried about my MBP keyboard breaking. I was replacing the power supply and installing an SSD into a friend's old Sony Vaio laptop and noticed that the keyboard was really dirty. I wiped it down, but didn't do it very gently. The end result was that I ended up also having to replace the keyboard after it developed a serious issue with repeating keys and ghost characters when I turned it back on again. I'm not sure what I did, but I probably rubbed dirt, grime, and dust into the switch mechanisms.

Lucky for me, you can still find replacement Vaio laptop keyboards for $20.

I really really hope that the next MBP design finds a way to make them more repairable. I expect all electronics to break. I just also expect to be able to fix most of the issues myself.

 

[Howard2k]

Without data, there is not a single person who has replied to this thread who can tell if there is a statistically significant difference in the failure rates (MTBF) of any apple computer from any year compared to any apple computer from any other year. Simply put, everything everyone has written in this thread is based on anecdotal evidance and speculation; the uninformed debating with the uninformed.

Any decision on whether to purchase (or not) a new Apple computer or not based on this, or any other thread associated with the failures of Apple computers, would be seriously misguided.


Joe

Generally I agree, it's careless to read too deeply into forum complaints and extrapolate that to some sort of percentage based failure rate.

But there is one statistic that I think the forums do expose, which is consecutive failure rates - when someone has a machine that fails, gets replaced, and that machines fails too. And in some instances, there are folks with 4, 5, 6 replacement machines.

If the MBPro failure rate is 5% in the first year, then aren't the odds of having a faulty machine, having it replaced, and then having the replacement fail is 0.25%? And then the odds of having it fail a third time 0.0125%? We seem to have plenty of people beating those odds. But maybe I'm wrong.

 

[macintoshmac]

I can only speak for myself and I've largely decided the issues facing MBPs are sufficient to avoid them. I've left the platform and purchased a Lenovo X1 Extreme. In comparing apples to apples, a similarly configured MBP would cost in excess of 4,300 but my laptop was 2,300 (there abouts). My point in raising this, is you're paying a premium for a particularly laptop, yet you are not getting that premium experience, whether we're talking about T2 issues (that seem to be largely resolved), keyboard failures, flexgate.

I chose to look at my computer usage dispassionately and for my needs going to a Thinkpad made all the sense in the world. I'm not saying you or anyone else should leave the mac ecosystem but rather weigh the positives and negatives of owning a MBP and make your own determination. There's no doubt, you'll see people post here saying that those issues affect a tiny subset of people. That may be true, that may not be, its up to you to choose what will work for you and how to spend your own money.

If I remember it correctly, you were using a MacBook Pro 15 inch, 2018 right?

To the OP (@tsarna), the new notebooks in 2016-2017-2018 years are by fat the most technologically advanced notebooks Apple ever produced. However, they seem to be the most unreliable too, for the basic functions of typing and opening-closing the lid, even. I sold off my 2016 MBP 13 with TB and got myself a 2017 MacBook Air and the peace of mind, regarding the reliability of the machine, is back.

There are lots of issues, as there are lots of discontent and happy users. If you need the absolute best, get the new one. If not, try looking for an older model, pre 2016 and ride it while it does. Hopefully, by that time, Apple would have again sorted out the temporary mess they have designed themselves into.

 

[smirking]

I have to disagree, I have keyboards from the 90s that still function and at work I have a 12 year old keyboard that has endured all sorts of abuse but keeps on chugging

Just about every keyboard made in the 90's were cheap rubber dome keyboards that are designed to be indestructible and they for the most part are. That's what's good about them. What sucks about them is that they stiffen with time and lose the smooth stroke that a lot of typists really like. They weren't made to be enjoyable. I've had plenty of keyboards from the 90's lying around that still work fine too, but I consider them worn out and wouldn't want to use any of them unless I had to.

I have five IBM Model M's from the 80's and all of them still work fine despite years of abuse, but those things are heavy enough to kill a bear.

I don't think anything based on scissor switches is going to survive 20+ years though. Grab a laptop you don't care about and pry off the keycaps. Eventually the thing that binds the keycaps on is going to weaken and the scissor mechanisms become more prone to snapping at the side joint with age. Don't laugh, but it's plausible that the butterfly keys can actually be more durable if they perfect the design because there's less travel for the plastic mechanisms to stabilize.

 

[SDColorado]

I have to disagree, I have keyboards from the 90s that still function and at work I have a 12 year old keyboard that has endured all sorts of abuse but keeps on chugging

I will agree with you. I don't have any from the 90's but I still have a couple of Dells, one from 2002 and one from 2003 that still boot up and work. While the 2002 began to have some display issues this year, the keyboards are still working on both. Not bad considering they have lived the past 12 years exclusively in the garage for a diagnostic/tuning app. (obviously brought out of the garage for the photo )

 

[Cashmonee]

Generally I agree, it's careless to read too deeply into forum complaints and extrapolate that to some sort of percentage based failure rate.

But there is one statistic that I think the forums do expose, which is consecutive failure rates - when someone has a machine that fails, gets replaced, and that machines fails too. And in some instances, there are folks with 4, 5, 6 replacement machines.

If the MBPro failure rate is 5% in the first year, then aren't the odds of having a faulty machine, having it replaced, and then having the replacement fail is 0.25%? And then the odds of having it fail a third time 0.0125%? We seem to have plenty of people beating those odds. But maybe I'm wrong.

You are still relying on the word of people you do not know who may have motive to exaggerate. In a good sample that variability is taken care of with randomness and size. That is not the case here. Any anecdotal data you find on forums is useless when trying to draw a conclusion about something like overall reliability.

However, they seem to be the most unreliable too, for the basic functions of typing and opening-closing the lid, even..

There is no evidence to support this statement. The only evidence I have seen actually shows the exact opposite, that the 2016 and 2017 are as reliable, possibly more reliable than 2015 and earlier. There is data and evidence to show that the keyboard is less reliable, but that is about it. Funny thing is, I have seen speculation that the overall reliability may have a lot to do with its lack of repairability.

 

[maflynn]

If I remember it correctly, you were using a MacBook Pro 15 inch, 2018 right?

Nope. I no longer have it

 

[Apple_Robert]

I have had a quite long odyssee with laptops in general over the last few years.
Let me begin by saying, that the grass is not always greener on the other side. I use Windows and Mac OS for way over ten years now and generally prefer Windows. Windows 10 is awesome and people telling me that it's unstable and crashing all the time are flat out wrong.

• Bought a Dell XPS 15 9330 a few years ago. Terrible machine, was only useable after a few months and several firmware updates. From time to time would not find the boot SSD. Terrible IGZO display, 80ms response time. Unusable for me.
• Sold it at a big loss and got the MBPT 15'' 2016. Had to swap it two times due to the infamous red blocks appearing on screen whenever the GPU was used. The UI was extremely sluggish and I caved eventually, getting a complete refund after escalating the issue with the Apple Store business team.
• Surface Book 1 - don't even get me started.
• Surface Book 2 15'' - awesome machine. A joy to use. But with combined CPU and GPU load the battery is draining while plugged in. Then I noticed severe bluetooth problems with every headphone I connected to the machine. After three weeks, some keys got sticky when not hitting them perfectly center.
• Exchanged it for a Surface Book 2 13''. Super slow display response times, severe coil whine, exact same key getting sticky after only five days of use. Tried a few demo units in store that all had the same issue.
• Tried an HP Spectre X360 15'' that had severe coil whine as well.
• Bought the 15'' MBPT 2018 after reading about the supposedly more reliable keyboard. This unit developed dead pixels and an insane amount of coil whine that was unbearable and even audible from the other end of the room.

At this point, as you might imagine, I was more than pissed and considered Lenovo, although I didn't wanna buy one after they shipped machines with rootkits preinstalled and basically lied about it for months. But I did:

• X1 Carbon 6 had a blown out left speaker right out of the box
• Exchanged unit had the same problem and was getting extremely hot even in idle, with CPU voltage severely lowered and even with disabling Turbo Boost. Also the extreme glossyness my HDR model had made it impossible to use the machine in any but the most perfect lighting conditions. While at client meetings I always had to ask for a spot that didn't have a windows behind me.
  
• X1 Yoga - was said to have a still glossy, but less reflective screen. Yeah, that is true. But the unit I got had debries and dirt below the glas panel right out of the box
• Surface Laptop 2. I opened seven (!) of these in store and each and every one of them had dead pixels. My current model only developed them after a month but now has three already. With light to moderate use and taking extreme care of it.

So here I am, with an again 2018 15'' MBPT that I got for a good price. Coil whine again, and external screens black out every time after a few minutes of use, doesn't matter what kind of USB-C to display port cable I attach to it. Considering my history with laptops in the last few years and looking at Apple's current track-record with MBP reliability, I am forced to buy a 399€ Apple Care Plus plan only to make sure I can use this thing for at least three years. Totally unacceptable normally, but let me tell you: laptops have gone down the drain so hard in the last few years that at this point I just don't care anymore.

I had the option to buy a Mac Mini for 1299 or the MBPT 2018 for 2.100. Latter seemed the better option, even if I currently only move it occasionally. But having the option to use this as a stationary machine and rarely take it back home or to a client meeting was worth the extra cost to me.

Let me end this horror by saying that my girlfriend obviously only ever bought one Mac. The 2016 13'' without touchbar. She doesn't take any care with it, it's constantly abused and working perfectly fine. The keys are all functioning well and never had to be cleaned with compressed air or anything
[doublepost=1549206558][/doublepost]

There are numerous podcasters and other well known people I follow on Twitter that have problems with the keyboards, yet haven't come around to exchanging their units due to needing them for work. A MacBook repair is currently impossible in any German Apple Store, as genius bar appointsments are *never* available in any store at all. Taking it to an authorized reseller would take 3-4 weeks. Most people simply can't afford to not have a machine for work for this long and will do everything they can to delay the inevitable repair. I would guess that the failure rate of the 2018 model is way above 10% and it will for sure get added to the extended keyboard warranty program. Mark my words.

Keep your girlfriend and make sure she hangs onto her Mac. Seems you have positive experience with those two, versus your long PC history.

 

[Queen6]

For those that have an interest, I chatted to friends who have a MBP.

11 in total.

4 had keyboard issues (36%)
0 T2 issues
0 Screen issues
1 Coil while
1 replacement as DoA

In the office, IT looked at 38 MBP's in Nov 2018

9 had keyboard issues (23%)
0 T2 issues
4 Screen issues (none related to stage lighting)
2 Coil Whine
4 Other (don't know what these were)

Hardly encouraging, really poor nor are you in isolation with such observations, and some will persist in maintaining MBP is a non issue...

Q-6

 

[smirking]

But there is one statistic that I think the forums do expose, which is consecutive failure rates - when someone has a machine that fails, gets replaced, and that machines fails too. And in some instances, there are folks with 4, 5, 6 replacement machines.

There have to be at least some of those people who are exaggerating or are OCD, but I'm sure there are still plenty of sequential failures that are totally legit.

It's actually not that improbable that a number of people suffer sequential failures. If your sample size is large enough, odds are it'll happen to a surprising number of people. There are no shortage of people who have won the lottery multiple times and some even on the same day. That's what the conversation about anecdotal evidence and research methods up above was about. Normal people will overestimate the odds of something happening if it's dramatic enough.

It's also possible that there were bad batches which would greatly increase the odds of someone getting sequential lemons if they were getting the units from the same store, or even the same distributor, or same region.

Some of the sequential failures were after topcase repairs. That presents at least a couple of problems. First, there may have been other factors in that unit that caused a keyboard failure and merely replacing the keyboard alone isn't going to fix anything. Second, anything that's been repaired is at a greater risk of failure. Any repair is risky. I'm sure some of them weren't done right.

I believe most of the stories of people who are having terrible experiences, but I also believe that MacRumors is an echo chamber that is driving people to overreact on limited information that even when true, might be more complicated than what you see on the surface.
[doublepost=1549211093][/doublepost]

I have had a quite long odyssee with laptops in general over the last few years.

Remind me to never let you so much as breathe on anything electronic that I own!

 

[Queen6]

I will agree with you. I don't have any from the 90's but I still have a couple of Dells, one from 2002 and one from 2003 that still boot up and work. While the 2002 began to have some display issues this year, the keyboards are still working on both. Not bad considering they have lived the past 12 years exclusively in the garage for a diagnostic/tuning app. (obviously brought out of the garage for the photo )

Same I've both old Mac's & PC's kicking about, never seen much difference in longevity, and never had a keyboard fail on me. Bottom line the 2016/2018 MBP is a poor design on multiple levels and a result of Apple's reduced focus on the Mac. We can likely expect more of the same unless Apple feels the pinch in the few places it cares about these days; image & revenue.

MBP is designed to be as cheap as possible to produce and deliver the maximal margin, which is fair enough until value to the customer is compromised.

Q-6

 

[sunapple]

I totally don't understand why people who say that buying a 2015 in 2018 was a wise decision are still using Macs.

I don't think that's wise at all, but not because I question their judgement in the rMBP vs tbMBP flame war, but because we all know Apple isn't going back. You can bet that when the next redesign comes out, it'll look a lot more like the tbMBP than the rMBP.

Why delay the inevitable?

Even though some issues appear to be persistent across generations, it is seems to make sense that a future generation might have the problems resolved. This is talking about hardware problems and not the Touch Bar or other features.

My decision to buy 2015 was in 2016 when the tbMBP was in its first generation, I’d say that was wise. Now in 2018 it is clear the machines still don’t have a great reputation, so if the 2015 can still serve you well, why not? If you depend on the computer for work it makes sense to go with the system that has proven itself to be reliable.

Just leaving that here for when I decide to sell my computer and need to minimize depreciation

 

[LeeW]

Hardly encouraging, really poor nor are you in isolation with such observations, and some will persist in maintaining MBP is a non issue...

Agreed although even now or at least based on 2018 figures, the big consumer groups who are as independent as you can get in the UK rank Apple well ahead of Lenovo, HP and Microsoft in terms of overall reliability. That is based on consumer feedback where I would always expect the people with issues to come out in force.

 

[maflynn]

I will agree with you. I don't have any from the 90's

Yeah I have an old dell in closet that just won't die