Agreed. Which is why I stated that AppleCare is insurance, and you either roll the dice without, or invest in it (with the benefit that it offers other perks as well). Are you suggesting he NOT take Apple Care + because you've only ever had one defect and Apple replaced it under the original 1-year warranty, and the odds are in his favor original defects will almost always show up during that initial warranty period?
The one option available now, which was not available when I had two iPhone 5s fail at the very end of their first year in use, is the ability to buy Apple Care + up to 1 year after purchase, whereas previously it was within 60 days. The other consideration for someone considering Apple Care is whether their credit card offers an extended warranty. I know all of mine offer an additional year on top of the manufacturer's warranty, which gives me 2 years on an original Apple product warranty, or 4 on an Apple Care + covered one.
Its a crapshoot but a few years back when the iphone 6 came out I paid for Applecare plus for 3 of our phones and never needed to use any of them. So money was wasted pretty much.
Extended coverage and protection plans are big money makers for manufacturers but if you can judge by your past usage, have a decent case on then chances are you'd be ok without buying the Applecare plus coverage. But that's up to each individual to decide what works best for them.
Also my Citi card offer 2 years on top of the manufacturers coverage so I'll be pretty much covered for 3 years from date of purchase so that's a better and free option