In my call to UPS international support yesterday, the agent said that they considered the package lost. I gather that Aaton35 was told something similar. What lost means I don't know, perhaps it's just the easiest thing for them to enter to start an investigation. As others have pointed out it's difficult to imagine how a pallet of two could go missing, but I'm sure the pandemic situation probably has something to do with it.
Interestingly, as of this evening, the UPS app shows a rescheduled delivery for April 15 (matching Apple's conservative estimate when the studio actually shipped) on my tracking number. There is no actual scan activity since 4/4 in HK though, just the notation that an investigation was opened yesterday.
We shall see.