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I have a refurbished M1 16GB MacBook Air upgaded to Monterey. I am having the same problem with TM "Waiting to Complete First Backup".
As others have said, the backup appears to finish, the available disk space on my external TM USB drive goes down but no files appear in Finder.

Initially I had the TM drive connected to a CalDigit Thunderbolt 4 Element Hub, which I thought was causing the problem. However the problem persists after formatting the drive and connecting it directly to the Mac.

EDIT:
I forgot to mention, I also tried using my Synology NAS for the Time Machine backup destination but I got the same "Waiting to Complete First Backup" error.
safe mode hasn't worked for me either.
 
A new backup SSD arrived a few hours ago and so far, no issues with Time Machine backups. The backup bundles are visible in Finder and Time Machine reports it's completed its first and subsequent backups.

One thing I did prior to the SSD arriving was nuking my macOS profile yesterday evening using Erase all Content and Settings. Kind of drastic but in my case it only takes me an hour to recover everything (...manually as I didn't want to risk pulling over corruption using Migration Assistant.)

Possibly related but more likely just an indicator that my profile was corrupt...I screenshare all my Macs with each other and this M1 24" would not let me connect to it at all from one of my other Macs. After nuking my profile and rebuilding it I can connect to the M1 without issue now from my other machines.

Anyway...I'll report back if the new backup drive and TM errors out again.
 
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I've had some success today.

Thanks to @bkh I decided to try safe mode.

  • I booted into safe mode and then into Disk Utility.
  • I ran Disk First Aid on both my Macintosh HD and my External Time Machine USB Drive.
  • I then started a Time Machine backup whilst in safe mode and it completed successfully. The files were visible in Finder too.
  • Finally, I restarted my Mac and initiated another Time Machine backup which completed without any problem and the files were still visible in Finder.
So far so good...

I am now trying to do a Time Machine backup to my Synology NAS. It says "about 4 hours remaining" so I'll update this post when it has finished.

Hopefully this will help some of you with your TM problems.

**UPDATE**
The Time Machine backup to my NAS gave the same "Waiting to Complete First Backup" error on completion.
I then booted into safe mode again and started another backup to my NAS. That completed quickly and successfuly.
I restarted my Mac and did another backup to my NAS which also competed successfully.

I have no idea what is causing the problem but, for now, it seems to be working.

I'll report back if I have any further problems.
 
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I've had some success today.

Thanks to @bkh I decided to try safe mode.

  • I booted into safe mode and then into Disk Utility.
  • I ran Disk First Aid on both my Macintosh HD and my External Time Machine USB Drive.
  • I then started a Time Machine backup whilst in safe mode and it completed successfully. The files were visible in Finder too.
  • Finally, I restarted my Mac and initiated another Time Machine backup which completed without any problem and the files were still visible in Finder.
So far so good...

I am now trying to do a Time Machine backup to my Synology NAS. It says "about 4 hours remaining" so I'll update this post when it has finished.

Hopefully this will help some of you with your TM problems.
Which type of Mac are you using? Intel, or Apple Silicon? You didn't mention, or maybe it was in an earlier post from you ? Either way, sounds like you're making progress. If Safe Mode makes a difference, it's probably almost certainly a driver problem.
 
Time Machine is actually finishing the backup, and on subsequent backups, see what files have changed and seems to overwrite those in the initial backup (hidden) but visible on a 3rd party Finder app like pathFinder app. What it isn't doing is then reporting a "done" backup, and changing the name of the backup from .inprogress (hidden) to .backups. So TM sees the backup even though it doesn't report it complete or name it right or show it in Finder. Not sure whether it would be accessible in Recover mode or not. In any case a serious bug that needs to be fixed.
Apple called me back with a message from the engineers that indicated to me that they have no clue what the problem even really is. They just wanted the same screenshots that I had already sent them. I though about trying the bata 12/1, but I very much doubt that would address this yet? Has anyone done that?

I might try the Safe Mode method as well.
 
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Which type of Mac are you using? Intel, or Apple Silicon? You didn't mention, or maybe it was in an earlier post from you ? Either way, sounds like you're making progress. If Safe Mode makes a difference, it's probably almost certainly a driver problem.
Sorry @MacinMan,
I did mention it in an earlier post. It's a 2020 M1 MacBook Air 16GB
 
Sorry @MacinMan,
I did mention it in an earlier post. It's a 2020 M1 MacBook Air 16GB
Ah, good, that's a good sign, the M1 series Macs seem to be the most affected here. I'm on an Intel based mac so the issue I initially had was different, but similar when it comes to it taking longer than expected.
 
I don't know if this helps but I've noticed that my External USB Time Machine backup drive is "Read only". Is that how it should be? I am unable to change permissions on it.
 
I don't know if this helps but I've noticed that my External USB Time Machine backup drive is "Read only". Is that how it should be? I am unable to change permissions on it.
My drive is read-only as well, I think it's special permissions given so only the system can modify it so people can't tamper with backups. The way I solved my issue was to setup Time Machine without encryption on the drive. The new backup still took a little over a day, but completed as expected, and has worked fine since. The hourly backups have been fast. I think in my case, while Time machine still may have run slower on initial backup then expected, I've also had much more data this time around to backup as well. So being a mechanical drive may have also been a factor in my case too.

Either way, what I'm seeing now, is more of the Apple Silicon Macs having issues. I think I'm the only one, or one of the only ones here with an Intel Mac that has reported a problem, at least a persistent problem that hasn't been resolved. I want to say, I was able to get a successful backup within 3 days of creating the thread, and it's been working since.
 
My drive is read-only as well, I think it's special permissions given so only the system can modify it so people can't tamper with backups. The way I solved my issue was to setup Time Machine without encryption on the drive. The new backup still took a little over a day, but completed as expected, and has worked fine since. The hourly backups have been fast. I think in my case, while Time machine still may have run slower on initial backup then expected, I've also had much more data this time around to backup as well. So being a mechanical drive may have also been a factor in my case too.

Either way, what I'm seeing now, is more of the Apple Silicon Macs having issues. I think I'm the only one, or one of the only ones here with an Intel Mac that has reported a problem, at least a persistent problem that hasn't been resolved. I want to say, I was able to get a successful backup within 3 days of creating the thread, and it's been working since.
Just for completeness, I set up Time Machine with encryption and after jumping through all the hoops of booting into safe mode, disk First Aid etc. (see my earlier post) Time Machine began to work correctly on my external mechanical drive.
 
Yeah it almost seems like there is a stuck corrupt file in the TM process somewhere that some people have been able to shake loose on way or the other.
 
On an M1, Monterey appears to require a newly formatted APFS file system. Monterey will read/write to other filing systems ok, but for time machine it needs a newly formatted APFS to work well. I used my Time Machine Back up in APFS to migrate to my new M1Pro from an old late 2013 MBP. I don’t have a lot of files so the 168 GB did its thing in about 45 minutes. But when I tried to use the same drive as a back up for the new M1Pro, I was told in a window that it could not be used because it was formatted by another computer. And so I wiped it and reformatted it with with Monterey using the M1Pro, and even so, when I first used Time Machine with this, Time Machine reformatted it once again with APFS. Time Machine is pretty picky picky picky.
 
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In case you missed it, I have updated my earlier post with the following.

**UPDATE**
The Time Machine backup to my NAS gave the same "Waiting to Complete First Backup" error on completion.
I then booted into safe mode again and started another backup to my NAS. That completed quickly and successfuly.
I restarted my Mac and did another backup to my NAS which also competed successfully.

I have no idea what is causing the problem but, for now, it seems to be working.

I'll report back if I have any further problems.
 
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In case you missed it, I have updated my earlier post with the following.

**UPDATE**
The Time Machine backup to my NAS gave the same "Waiting to Complete First Backup" error on completion.
I then booted into safe mode again and started another backup to my NAS. That completed quickly and successfuly.
I restarted my Mac and did another backup to my NAS which also competed successfully.

I have no idea what is causing the problem but, for now, it seems to be working.

I'll report back if I have any further problems.
So, maybe the temporary solution should be, M1 users should do their first backup after installing / upgrading to Monterey in safe mode.
 
Has anyone updated to the beta 12.1?
I haven't because i wouldn't be able to tell you if it fixed anything, as my initial issue was different. I could try it in a VM, but that still might not give you guys the results / answer you're looking for.
 
In case you missed it, I have updated my earlier post with the following.

**UPDATE**
The Time Machine backup to my NAS gave the same "Waiting to Complete First Backup" error on completion.
I then booted into safe mode again and started another backup to my NAS. That completed quickly and successfuly.
I restarted my Mac and did another backup to my NAS which also competed successfully.

I have no idea what is causing the problem but, for now, it seems to be working.

I'll report back if I have any further problems.
For mine. I backup to 2 disks . Both have the same "error" where it says it's waiting for the first backup after a full backup. A second manual backup fixed it tho in my case. After the second backup it says the time etc like usual . And I can confirm that the auto backup every hour is working too
 
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Not practical for everyone but I can report 24 hours after erasing my macOS profile using Erase All Content And Settings and erasing my backup drive, Time Machine functions flawlessly so far on my 24" M1.
 
My 2015 Intel Macbook Pro successfully backed up to TM. Huzzah! I have no idea why our how but it went through with a second one as a test for good measure. Wishing you the same good fortune!
 
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