This is imo worse than Vista. Windows Vista's issue was simply performance, but the minimum requirements was not "excessive." The biggest issue was old intel integrated GPUs not supporting Aero, resulting in the desktop looking kinda bleh.
Windows 11 is worse, is that Microsoft explicitly cut off any processors older than 2018, meaning plenty of hardware that would normally able to run the OS won't be able to, simply due to arbitrary processor restriction (akin to what Apple has been doing).
And you are correct, the simple reason here is to force many people to upgrade their PCs. We can watch the sales of new PCs by the end of this year, when many people would simply feel FOMO, missing out on the new shiny Windows 11. The catch is, if Microsoft would start this track of dropping processor support willy nilly, some people might think to just get a Mac.
I do disagree about Ballmer. He is toxic, imo. Current Microsoft overall has been quite great, being more open and supportive of other platforms. I have posted my own theory behind Windows 11 in another thread, which is imo is Microsoft's version of "Big Sur," aka the telltale sign of transition.